Taking Advantage of the Wins

The following is the difference one should apply to winning percentage, based on strength-of-schedule. It essentially shows the change in wins for every team, if everyone played each other an equal amount of games. The top teams in the East were "overachievers" because they played a weaker schedule.

Thus, we see that Chicago (-2.7 wins) should actually be lower in the standings than San Antonio (-0.2 wins). San Antonio and LA are both slight overachievers, primarily because they didn't play themselves as often as everyone in the West did.

Team	Diff
Chicago Bulls	-2.7
Miami Heat	-2.2
Boston Celtics	-1.9
Orlando Magic	-1.6
Philadelphia 76ers	-1.2
Atlanta Hawks	-1.2
New York Knickerbockers	-1
Indiana Pacers	-0.7
Los Angeles Lakers	-0.5
Oklahoma City Thunder	-0.4
Milwaukee Bucks	-0.3
Charlotte Bobcats	-0.3
San Antonio Spurs	-0.2
Detroit Pistons	-0.2
Dallas Mavericks	0.1
New Jersey Nets	0.2
Denver Nuggets	0.2
Toronto Raptors	0.4
Washington Wizards	0.5
Cleveland Cavaliers	0.5
Memphis Grizzlies	0.6
Houston Rockets	0.7
Portland Trail Blazers	0.8
New Orleans Hornets	1
Utah Jazz	1
Golden State Warriors	1
Phoenix Suns	1.3
Los Angeles Clippers	1.3
Sacramento Kings	2
Minnesota Timberwolves	2.6

Final Rankings, NBA Regular Season

These rankings reflect 1230 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Adj. W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Chicago Bulls	62-20	59.3-22.7	98.6	91.3	7.3	0.5173	0.7233
Miami Heat	58-24	55.8-26.2	102.1	94.6	7.5	0.5170	0.6806
Los Angeles Lakers	57-25	56.5-25.5	101.5	95.4	6.1	0.5151	0.6893
San Antonio Spurs	61-21	60.8-21.2	103.7	98.0	5.7	0.5145	0.7419
Boston Celtics	56-26	54.1-27.9	96.5	91.1	5.4	0.5129	0.6596
Orlando Magic	52-30	50.4-31.6	99.2	93.7	5.5	0.5127	0.6148
Denver Nuggets	50-32	50.2-31.8	107.5	102.7	4.8	0.5113	0.6123
Dallas Mavericks	57-25	57.1-24.9	100.2	96.0	4.2	0.5112	0.6960
Oklahoma City Thunder	55-27	54.6-27.4	104.8	101.0	3.8	0.5092	0.6657
Memphis Grizzlies	46-36	46.6-35.4	99.9	97.6	2.3	0.5066	0.5682
Houston Rockets	43-39	43.7-38.3	105.9	103.7	2.2	0.5058	0.5328
Portland Trail Blazers	48-34	48.8-33.2	96.3	94.8	1.5	0.5048	0.5947
New Orleans Hornets	46-36	47-35	94.9	94.0	0.9	0.5033	0.5733
Philadelphia 76ers	41-41	39.8-42.2	99.0	97.5	1.5	0.5023	0.4848
New York Knickerbockers	42-40	41-41	106.5	105.7	0.8	0.5009	0.5006
Phoenix Suns	40-42	41.3-40.7	105.0	105.9	-0.9	0.4990	0.5038
Milwaukee Bucks	35-47	34.7-47.3	91.9	92.7	-0.8	0.4971	0.4226
Atlanta Hawks	44-38	42.8-39.2	95.0	95.8	-0.8	0.4969	0.5221
Utah Jazz	39-43	40-42	99.4	101.3	-1.8	0.4964	0.4884
Indiana Pacers	37-45	36.3-45.7	99.8	100.9	-1.1	0.4964	0.4429
Golden State Warriors	36-46	37-45	103.4	105.7	-2.3	0.4953	0.4516
Los Angeles Clippers	32-50	33.3-48.7	98.6	101.8	-3.1	0.4930	0.4064
Detroit Pistons	30-52	29.8-52.2	97.0	100.6	-3.6	0.4902	0.3631
Charlotte Bobcats	34-48	33.7-48.3	93.3	97.3	-4.0	0.4892	0.4113
Sacramento Kings	24-58	26-56	99.4	104.7	-5.3	0.4882	0.3169
Minnesota Timberwolves	17-65	19.6-62.4	101.1	107.7	-6.6	0.4857	0.2394
Toronto Raptors	22-60	22.4-59.6	99.1	105.4	-6.3	0.4846	0.2730
New Jersey Nets	24-58	24.2-57.8	94.2	100.4	-6.2	0.4837	0.2955
Washington Wizards	23-59	23.5-58.5	97.3	104.7	-7.4	0.4817	0.2870
Cleveland Cavaliers	19-63	19.5-62.5	95.5	104.5	-9.0	0.4777	0.2383

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

This isn't really a very good statement on how you should expect teams to play in the postseason, because I haven't adjusted for trades or injuries. Expect an updated, postseason version to follow!

NBA Outcomes, Western Conference

With 13 games remaining in the Western Conference playoff picture, I thought I'd take a shot at outlining the possible outcomes.

First Place
San Antonio has first place.

Second, Third, and Fourth Place
Lakers own the tiebreakers against Dallas (division leader) and OKC (2-1 series), so they can tie either team and still earn 2nd place.
OKC owns the tiebreaker against Dallas (division leader), but not against Lakers.
Dallas needs a better record to earn 2nd.

Fifth Place
Denver can clinch by winning one more game.
Portland has to win both remaining games AND have Denver lose both games.  Portland owns the tiebreaker (division W-L record).

Sixth, Seventh, and Eighth Place
Portland can clinch by winning both games.

New Orleans owns the tiebreakers against Portland and Memphis.
Portland and Memphis will determine their tiebreaker in their game Tuesday.

As a Mavs fan, my dream standings are:

1) San Antonio
2) Dallas
3) OKC
4) Lakers
5) Denver
6) Portland
7) New Orleans
8) Memphis