For Posterity

This blog was an attempt to apply the Colley Matrix method to NBA, both in terms of wins and in terms of points.  I did not update it daily, nor have I worked on the methodology for awhile.  As my programming chops improve, I may revisit/redesign the blog.

But for now, consider this blog retired.

Taking Advantage of the Wins

The following is the difference one should apply to winning percentage, based on strength-of-schedule. It essentially shows the change in wins for every team, if everyone played each other an equal amount of games. The top teams in the East were "overachievers" because they played a weaker schedule.

Thus, we see that Chicago (-2.7 wins) should actually be lower in the standings than San Antonio (-0.2 wins). San Antonio and LA are both slight overachievers, primarily because they didn't play themselves as often as everyone in the West did.

Team	Diff
Chicago Bulls	-2.7
Miami Heat	-2.2
Boston Celtics	-1.9
Orlando Magic	-1.6
Philadelphia 76ers	-1.2
Atlanta Hawks	-1.2
New York Knickerbockers	-1
Indiana Pacers	-0.7
Los Angeles Lakers	-0.5
Oklahoma City Thunder	-0.4
Milwaukee Bucks	-0.3
Charlotte Bobcats	-0.3
San Antonio Spurs	-0.2
Detroit Pistons	-0.2
Dallas Mavericks	0.1
New Jersey Nets	0.2
Denver Nuggets	0.2
Toronto Raptors	0.4
Washington Wizards	0.5
Cleveland Cavaliers	0.5
Memphis Grizzlies	0.6
Houston Rockets	0.7
Portland Trail Blazers	0.8
New Orleans Hornets	1
Utah Jazz	1
Golden State Warriors	1
Phoenix Suns	1.3
Los Angeles Clippers	1.3
Sacramento Kings	2
Minnesota Timberwolves	2.6

Final Rankings, NBA Regular Season

These rankings reflect 1230 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Adj. W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Chicago Bulls	62-20	59.3-22.7	98.6	91.3	7.3	0.5173	0.7233
Miami Heat	58-24	55.8-26.2	102.1	94.6	7.5	0.5170	0.6806
Los Angeles Lakers	57-25	56.5-25.5	101.5	95.4	6.1	0.5151	0.6893
San Antonio Spurs	61-21	60.8-21.2	103.7	98.0	5.7	0.5145	0.7419
Boston Celtics	56-26	54.1-27.9	96.5	91.1	5.4	0.5129	0.6596
Orlando Magic	52-30	50.4-31.6	99.2	93.7	5.5	0.5127	0.6148
Denver Nuggets	50-32	50.2-31.8	107.5	102.7	4.8	0.5113	0.6123
Dallas Mavericks	57-25	57.1-24.9	100.2	96.0	4.2	0.5112	0.6960
Oklahoma City Thunder	55-27	54.6-27.4	104.8	101.0	3.8	0.5092	0.6657
Memphis Grizzlies	46-36	46.6-35.4	99.9	97.6	2.3	0.5066	0.5682
Houston Rockets	43-39	43.7-38.3	105.9	103.7	2.2	0.5058	0.5328
Portland Trail Blazers	48-34	48.8-33.2	96.3	94.8	1.5	0.5048	0.5947
New Orleans Hornets	46-36	47-35	94.9	94.0	0.9	0.5033	0.5733
Philadelphia 76ers	41-41	39.8-42.2	99.0	97.5	1.5	0.5023	0.4848
New York Knickerbockers	42-40	41-41	106.5	105.7	0.8	0.5009	0.5006
Phoenix Suns	40-42	41.3-40.7	105.0	105.9	-0.9	0.4990	0.5038
Milwaukee Bucks	35-47	34.7-47.3	91.9	92.7	-0.8	0.4971	0.4226
Atlanta Hawks	44-38	42.8-39.2	95.0	95.8	-0.8	0.4969	0.5221
Utah Jazz	39-43	40-42	99.4	101.3	-1.8	0.4964	0.4884
Indiana Pacers	37-45	36.3-45.7	99.8	100.9	-1.1	0.4964	0.4429
Golden State Warriors	36-46	37-45	103.4	105.7	-2.3	0.4953	0.4516
Los Angeles Clippers	32-50	33.3-48.7	98.6	101.8	-3.1	0.4930	0.4064
Detroit Pistons	30-52	29.8-52.2	97.0	100.6	-3.6	0.4902	0.3631
Charlotte Bobcats	34-48	33.7-48.3	93.3	97.3	-4.0	0.4892	0.4113
Sacramento Kings	24-58	26-56	99.4	104.7	-5.3	0.4882	0.3169
Minnesota Timberwolves	17-65	19.6-62.4	101.1	107.7	-6.6	0.4857	0.2394
Toronto Raptors	22-60	22.4-59.6	99.1	105.4	-6.3	0.4846	0.2730
New Jersey Nets	24-58	24.2-57.8	94.2	100.4	-6.2	0.4837	0.2955
Washington Wizards	23-59	23.5-58.5	97.3	104.7	-7.4	0.4817	0.2870
Cleveland Cavaliers	19-63	19.5-62.5	95.5	104.5	-9.0	0.4777	0.2383

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

This isn't really a very good statement on how you should expect teams to play in the postseason, because I haven't adjusted for trades or injuries. Expect an updated, postseason version to follow!

NBA Outcomes, Western Conference

With 13 games remaining in the Western Conference playoff picture, I thought I'd take a shot at outlining the possible outcomes.

First Place
San Antonio has first place.

Second, Third, and Fourth Place
Lakers own the tiebreakers against Dallas (division leader) and OKC (2-1 series), so they can tie either team and still earn 2nd place.
OKC owns the tiebreaker against Dallas (division leader), but not against Lakers.
Dallas needs a better record to earn 2nd.

Fifth Place
Denver can clinch by winning one more game.
Portland has to win both remaining games AND have Denver lose both games.  Portland owns the tiebreaker (division W-L record).

Sixth, Seventh, and Eighth Place
Portland can clinch by winning both games.

New Orleans owns the tiebreakers against Portland and Memphis.
Portland and Memphis will determine their tiebreaker in their game Tuesday.

As a Mavs fan, my dream standings are:

1) San Antonio
2) Dallas
3) OKC
4) Lakers
5) Denver
6) Portland
7) New Orleans
8) Memphis

NBA Colors

Atlanta Hawks
Boston Celtics
Charlotte Bobcats
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dallas Mavericks
Denver Nuggets
Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Jersey Nets
New Orleans Hornets
New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic
Philadelphia 76ers
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers
San Antonio Spurs
Sacramento Kings
Toronto Raptors
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards

March 4 Rankings

These rankings reflect 911 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Adj. W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	43-18	40.9-20.1	101.9	94.5	7.4	0.5168	0.6705
Boston Celtics	44-15	42.6-16.4	98.3	91.5	6.7	0.5165	0.7219
San Antonio Spurs	50-11	48.6-12.4	103.4	96.6	6.8	0.5161	0.7967
Chicago Bulls	41-18	39.7-19.3	98.1	92.1	6.0	0.5147	0.6725
Los Angeles Lakers	43-19	41.4-20.6	102.0	95.8	6.3	0.5144	0.6671
Orlando Magic	40-22	39-23	100.3	94.3	6.0	0.5144	0.6285
Dallas Mavericks	44-16	43.6-16.4	99.6	95.7	3.9	0.5103	0.7268
Denver Nuggets	37-26	37.2-25.8	107.5	104.0	3.4	0.5081	0.5904
Oklahoma City Thunder	37-22	37.5-21.5	104.3	102.0	2.4	0.5065	0.6356
Memphis Grizzlies	34-28	34-28	100.0	98.0	2.0	0.5051	0.5485
New Orleans Hornets	35-28	35.1-27.9	94.5	92.9	1.7	0.5045	0.5571
Philadelphia 76ers	30-30	29.4-30.6	98.5	96.8	1.8	0.5031	0.4894
Houston Rockets	31-32	31.5-31.5	105.5	104.6	0.9	0.5026	0.4998
New York Knickerbockers	31-28	30.6-28.4	106.2	105.5	0.7	0.5013	0.5188
Portland Trail Blazers	34-27	33.6-27.4	96.3	95.9	0.3	0.5007	0.5506
Atlanta Hawks	37-24	34.9-26.1	96.0	95.1	0.9	0.5003	0.5729
Phoenix Suns	31-28	31.2-27.8	105.2	105.3	-0.1	0.5000	0.5293
Utah Jazz	32-30	32.5-29.5	99.6	100.2	-0.6	0.4989	0.5245
Indiana Pacers	27-33	26.8-33.2	99.7	100.1	-0.4	0.4982	0.4460
Milwaukee Bucks	23-36	23.5-35.5	91.4	92.8	-1.4	0.4964	0.3977
Golden State Warriors	27-33	27.6-32.4	102.7	105.8	-3.1	0.4932	0.4602
Los Angeles Clippers	22-40	23.1-38.9	98.4	101.9	-3.5	0.4919	0.3732
Charlotte Bobcats	26-34	25.8-34.2	94.0	97.1	-3.1	0.4918	0.4301
Detroit Pistons	22-41	22.5-40.5	95.5	99.7	-4.2	0.4895	0.3567
Minnesota Timberwolves	15-47	16.5-45.5	101.6	107.4	-5.8	0.4869	0.2661
Toronto Raptors	17-44	18.3-42.7	98.8	104.8	-6.0	0.4866	0.3002
Sacramento Kings	15-44	16.2-42.8	98.0	103.6	-5.6	0.4864	0.2751
New Jersey Nets	17-43	18.3-41.7	92.9	99.2	-6.3	0.4846	0.3049
Washington Wizards	15-45	16.6-43.4	96.7	103.9	-7.2	0.4837	0.2768
Cleveland Cavaliers	11-49	12.7-47.3	95.8	106.0	-10.2	0.4767	0.2123

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

Feb. 28 Rankings

These rankings reflect 886 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Adj. W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
San Antonio Spurs	49-10	48-11	103.5	96.3	7.1	0.5172	0.8096
Miami Heat	43-17	41-19	102.0	94.4	7.6	0.5170	0.6789
Boston Celtics	42-15	41-16	97.8	91.2	6.6	0.5163	0.7115
Los Angeles Lakers	42-19	41-20	102.2	96.0	6.2	0.5143	0.6656
Chicago Bulls	40-17	39-18	98.3	92.5	5.8	0.5143	0.6804
Orlando Magic	38-22	37-23	100.0	94.0	6.0	0.5142	0.6147
Dallas Mavericks	43-16	43-16	99.6	95.7	3.9	0.5100	0.7224
Denver Nuggets	34-26	34-26	107.5	104.7	2.7	0.5065	0.5707
New Orleans Hornets	35-26	35-26	94.7	92.6	2.1	0.5059	0.5777
Oklahoma City Thunder	36-22	37-21	104.2	102.2	2.0	0.5056	0.6309
Memphis Grizzlies	33-28	33-28	99.9	98.1	1.8	0.5042	0.5361
Philadelphia 76ers	30-29	29-30	98.6	96.7	1.9	0.5034	0.4935
Houston Rockets	30-31	30-31	105.5	104.8	0.7	0.5021	0.4999
Portland Trail Blazers	33-26	33-26	96.2	95.7	0.5	0.5013	0.5553
New York Knickerbockers	30-27	29-28	106.2	105.6	0.5	0.5006	0.5168
Atlanta Hawks	36-23	34-25	96.3	95.3	1.1	0.5004	0.5712
Phoenix Suns	30-27	30-27	105.2	105.1	0.1	0.5003	0.5299
Indiana Pacers	26-32	26-32	99.7	99.9	-0.2	0.4988	0.4432
Utah Jazz	32-28	32-28	99.6	100.1	-0.5	0.4987	0.5360
Milwaukee Bucks	22-36	23-35	91.4	92.9	-1.5	0.4965	0.3908
Golden State Warriors	26-32	27-31	102.7	105.8	-3.1	0.4935	0.4645
Charlotte Bobcats	26-33	26-33	94.3	96.7	-2.5	0.4932	0.4359
Los Angeles Clippers	21-39	22-38	98.2	101.8	-3.6	0.4919	0.3731
Detroit Pistons	22-39	23-38	95.4	99.6	-4.1	0.4899	0.3729
Minnesota Timberwolves	14-46	15-45	101.7	107.7	-6.0	0.4865	0.2583
Toronto Raptors	16-44	17-43	98.8	105.0	-6.2	0.4861	0.2885
Sacramento Kings	14-43	15-42	97.8	103.6	-5.8	0.4860	0.2688
Washington Wizards	15-43	16-42	96.9	103.8	-6.9	0.4844	0.2831
New Jersey Nets	17-42	18-41	92.7	99.2	-6.4	0.4844	0.3095
Cleveland Cavaliers	11-48	12-47	95.8	105.9	-10.2	0.4764	0.2104

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)