Dec. 14 Power Rankings

These rankings reflect 358 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Adj. W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	18-8	17-9	100.8	91.0	9.8	0.5246	0.6632
Boston Celtics	19-4	18-5	100.7	91.0	9.7	0.5240	0.7900
San Antonio Spurs	20-3	19-4	106.4	96.5	10.0	0.5223	0.8196
Dallas Mavericks	19-5	19-5	98.8	93.0	5.7	0.5162	0.7837
Los Angeles Lakers	17-7	15-9	106.4	98.6	7.8	0.5134	0.6214
Utah Jazz	18-8	18-8	101.3	97.3	4.0	0.5128	0.7048
Orlando Magic	16-8	15-9	97.0	91.9	5.1	0.5111	0.6214
Chicago Bulls	15-8	15-8	99.7	96.3	3.3	0.5099	0.6711
New Orleans Hornets	14-10	15-9	93.2	92.0	1.2	0.5067	0.6157
Denver Nuggets	14-9	14-9	106.7	104.9	1.8	0.5056	0.6207
Atlanta Hawks	16-9	15-10	98.8	96.1	2.7	0.5052	0.6041
Oklahoma City Thunder	17-8	17-8	103.2	101.9	1.3	0.5039	0.6779
Indiana Pacers	11-12	11-12	98.5	97.2	1.3	0.5037	0.4751
Philadelphia 76ers	8-15	8-15	98.0	97.7	0.3	0.4998	0.3631
Houston Rockets	9-14	10-13	104.9	104.9	0.0	0.4995	0.4166
Portland Trail Blazers	12-13	12-13	93.9	94.6	-0.7	0.4993	0.4997
Milwaukee Bucks	10-13	11-12	92.0	93.2	-1.2	0.4992	0.4643
Phoenix Suns	11-12	11-12	108.1	109.5	-1.4	0.4988	0.4940
New York Knickerbockers	16-9	14-11	108.5	106.6	2.0	0.4987	0.5578
Memphis Grizzlies	11-14	11-14	99.6	100.9	-1.3	0.4972	0.4534
Toronto Raptors	9-15	9-15	102.9	105.5	-2.6	0.4937	0.3852
Charlotte Bobcats	8-15	8-15	93.6	97.0	-3.4	0.4923	0.3687
Los Angeles Clippers	5-20	7-18	95.8	101.7	-5.9	0.4871	0.2677
Golden State Warriors	8-16	9-15	100.4	107.0	-6.6	0.4869	0.3863
New Jersey Nets	6-18	7-17	93.3	99.1	-5.8	0.4869	0.2890
Minnesota Timberwolves	6-18	7-17	101.8	109.1	-7.4	0.4836	0.2956
Detroit Pistons	7-18	7-18	94.4	100.8	-6.5	0.4817	0.2868
Washington Wizards	6-16	6-16	98.0	106.3	-8.4	0.4800	0.2852
Sacramento Kings	5-16	5-16	94.4	101.1	-6.8	0.4797	0.2226
Cleveland Cavaliers	7-17	7-17	93.2	102.9	-9.7	0.4764	0.2954

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

I've added a line called "Adjusted W-L" based on the Colley method.  Essentially, it tells you how many games a team has won or lost if everyone had an equal strength of schedule.  So when Marc Stein says that LA has had the easiest schedule of anyone so far, he's not kidding:  the adjusted W-L drops them from 17-7 to 15-9.  The Knicks are another minus-two team at the moment, looking better than they should because of their easy schedule.

On the other hand, the Clippers(!) are a plus-two team, meaning on a level playing field, they'd have won two more games.

Dec. 2 Rankings

These rankings reflect 273 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	12-8	101.3	93.1	8.2	0.5217	0.5882
Orlando Magic	14-4	99.1	91.1	7.9	0.5191	0.7186
San Antonio Spurs	14-3	112.8	104.1	8.7	0.5191	0.8189
Boston Celtics	15-4	95.4	88.1	7.3	0.5186	0.7230
Dallas Mavericks	14-4	97.9	92.2	5.7	0.5177	0.7786
Utah Jazz	15-5	102.0	96.9	5.1	0.5142	0.7431
New Orleans Hornets	13-5	95.7	91.3	4.3	0.5141	0.7300
Los Angeles Lakers	13-6	108.2	100.6	7.6	0.5130	0.6098
Denver Nuggets	11-6	105.9	103.0	2.9	0.5091	0.6597
Indiana Pacers	9-8	99.6	97.2	2.4	0.5071	0.5249
Chicago Bulls	9-8	94.2	93.2	1.1	0.5043	0.5397
Atlanta Hawks	12-7	100.8	97.8	2.9	0.5032	0.5742
Oklahoma City Thunder	13-6	103.3	102.9	0.4	0.5030	0.6879
Phoenix Suns	9-9	109.2	111.3	-2.1	0.4988	0.5310
Portland Trail Blazers	8-10	95.2	96.4	-1.2	0.4987	0.4770
Memphis Grizzlies	8-11	100.7	102.1	-1.4	0.4968	0.4436
Houston Rockets	6-12	103.9	105.9	-2.0	0.4963	0.3883
Toronto Raptors	7-11	100.7	102.3	-1.6	0.4960	0.3799
Charlotte Bobcats	6-11	100.9	102.8	-1.8	0.4960	0.3967
Milwaukee Bucks	6-12	91.3	93.6	-2.3	0.4948	0.3686
New York Knickerbockers	10-9	107.0	106.8	0.2	0.4938	0.4414
Philadelphia 76ers	5-13	97.3	99.7	-2.4	0.4937	0.2926
New Jersey Nets	6-13	94.7	98.4	-3.7	0.4907	0.3333
Golden State Warriors	8-11	101.4	106.5	-5.1	0.4859	0.4062
Los Angeles Clippers	4-15	97.3	104.1	-6.8	0.4858	0.3123
Cleveland Cavaliers	7-11	94.3	100.9	-6.6	0.4857	0.3950
Detroit Pistons	6-13	94.4	100.3	-5.9	0.4836	0.3255
Washington Wizards	5-12	98.2	106.1	-7.8	0.4817	0.2985
Minnesota Timberwolves	4-14	100.2	109.6	-9.4	0.4788	0.2590
Sacramento Kings	4-12	94.3	100.8	-6.5	0.4787	0.2311

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

Nov. 4 Rankings

These rankings reflect 66 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	4-1	100.6	84.0	16.6	0.5430	0.6894
Orlando Magic	2-1	103.3	88.3	15.0	0.5370	0.5866
Los Angeles Lakers	5-0	113.8	100.8	13.0	0.5312	0.8564
Denver Nuggets	2-2	103.3	96.3	7.0	0.5300	0.5337
New Orleans Hornets	4-0	100.5	93.8	6.8	0.5251	0.8039
Dallas Mavericks	3-1	98.0	90.3	7.8	0.5179	0.6224
Boston Celtics	4-1	98.8	92.8	6.0	0.5106	0.6523
Atlanta Hawks	5-0	103.2	94.6	8.6	0.5105	0.7662
San Antonio Spurs	3-1	105.3	101.5	3.8	0.5074	0.6721
Houston Rockets	0-4	107.8	114.5	-6.8	0.5073	0.3119
Golden State Warriors	3-1	109.8	108.8	1.0	0.5070	0.6776
Phoenix Suns	1-3	104.5	106.5	-2.0	0.5062	0.4272
Portland Trail Blazers	4-2	99.7	94.7	5.0	0.5038	0.5708
New York Knickerbockers	2-2	103.5	102.5	1.0	0.5010	0.4999
Philadelphia 76ers	1-4	98.0	98.2	-0.2	0.5003	0.3236
Utah Jazz	2-2	106.8	106.8	0.0	0.5001	0.4638
Memphis Grizzlies	2-3	103.6	107.4	-3.8	0.4991	0.5330
Chicago Bulls	2-2	104.5	103.8	0.8	0.4912	0.4617
Washington Wizards	1-2	98.0	108.7	-10.7	0.4893	0.4353
Toronto Raptors	1-3	102.5	103.8	-1.3	0.4892	0.3147
Sacramento Kings	3-2	107.0	109.2	-2.2	0.4855	0.5449
Milwaukee Bucks	1-4	90.4	94.8	-4.4	0.4854	0.3055
Los Angeles Clippers	1-4	91.4	99.0	-7.6	0.4827	0.3643
New Jersey Nets	2-2	92.0	96.0	-4.0	0.4821	0.4549
Indiana Pacers	2-2	96.8	102.5	-5.8	0.4813	0.4371
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-3	92.0	98.8	-6.8	0.4809	0.3797
Oklahoma City Thunder	3-2	101.8	106.4	-4.6	0.4789	0.5075
Charlotte Bobcats	1-3	90.0	96.5	-6.5	0.4743	0.3033
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-4	96.8	113.6	-16.8	0.4710	0.3085
Detroit Pistons	0-5	92.8	102.0	-9.2	0.4706	0.1918

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

Prediction Results for Nov. 3

Apologies for the lack of updates. Catching up tonight.

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein	Woodrow	Winner
Mavericks at Nuggets	Nuggets	Even	Nuggets	Nuggets	Mavericks
Pistons at Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
Bobcats at Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets	Bobcats
Timberwolves at Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic
Pacers at 76ers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers	76ers
Bucks at Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Hornets at Rockets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets
Raptors at Jazz	Jazz	Even	Jazz	Raptors	Jazz
Spurs at Suns	Spurs	Spurs	Spurs	Suns	Spurs
Grizzlies at Warriors	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Warriors	Warriors
Thunder at Clippers	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder	Clippers
Lakers at Kings	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

Scores
Colley: 7-5
W-L: 6-4
Stein: 7-5
Woodrow: 6-6

Record
Stein: 18-7
Colley: 17-8
W-L: 15-7
Woodrow: 14-11
Home Team: 37-27

Nov. 3 Rankings

These rankings reflect 64 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	4-1	100.6	84.0	16.6	0.5429	0.6879
Orlando Magic	2-1	103.3	88.3	15.0	0.5370	0.5865
Los Angeles Lakers	5-0	113.8	100.8	13.0	0.5315	0.8580
Denver Nuggets	2-2	103.3	96.3	7.0	0.5297	0.5317
New Orleans Hornets	4-0	100.5	93.8	6.8	0.5255	0.8060
Dallas Mavericks	3-1	98.0	90.3	7.8	0.5179	0.6227
Portland Trail Blazers	4-1	98.4	92.2	6.2	0.5108	0.6567
Boston Celtics	4-1	98.8	92.8	6.0	0.5103	0.6415
Atlanta Hawks	5-0	103.2	94.6	8.6	0.5102	0.7655
San Antonio Spurs	3-1	105.3	101.5	3.8	0.5079	0.6749
Phoenix Suns	1-3	104.5	106.5	-2.0	0.5076	0.4398
Houston Rockets	0-4	107.8	114.5	-6.8	0.5074	0.3123
Golden State Warriors	3-1	109.8	108.8	1.0	0.5071	0.6782
Philadelphia 76ers	1-4	98.0	98.2	-0.2	0.5003	0.3235
New York Knickerbockers	1-2	98.0	99.3	-1.3	0.5000	0.4191
Memphis Grizzlies	2-3	103.6	107.4	-3.8	0.4992	0.5334
Utah Jazz	2-2	106.8	106.8	0.0	0.4983	0.4493
Chicago Bulls	2-1	102.0	98.3	3.7	0.4936	0.5551
Washington Wizards	1-2	98.0	108.7	-10.7	0.4892	0.4351
Toronto Raptors	1-3	102.5	103.8	-1.3	0.4883	0.2975
Milwaukee Bucks	1-4	90.4	94.8	-4.4	0.4868	0.3170
Sacramento Kings	3-2	107.0	109.2	-2.2	0.4852	0.5420
Los Angeles Clippers	1-4	91.4	99.0	-7.6	0.4827	0.3656
New Jersey Nets	2-2	92.0	96.0	-4.0	0.4818	0.4545
Indiana Pacers	2-2	96.8	102.5	-5.8	0.4815	0.4379
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-3	92.0	98.8	-6.8	0.4805	0.3744
Charlotte Bobcats	1-3	90.0	96.5	-6.5	0.4747	0.3053
Oklahoma City Thunder	2-2	100.5	106.5	-6.0	0.4717	0.4270
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-4	96.8	113.6	-16.8	0.4712	0.3096
Detroit Pistons	0-5	92.8	102.0	-9.2	0.4693	0.1919

(Inital rankings are sorted by the Colley-Woodrow rankings, but you can click a different heading to re-sort the table! The W-L column sorts by W-L %, rather than games ahead/behind, so a 4-2 team is equal to a 2-1 team.)

Prediction Contest: Welcome Colley-Woodrow!

Disclaimer:  the Colley Matrix does not accurately predict games.  I would argue, however, that it predicts games better than a simple Win-Loss comparison.

Having worked out the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method, I think we have a true prognosticator to challenge Marc Stein.  Because of the closer rankings (nothing beyond 0.4-0.5), I'm setting it's "equal" margin at 0.001.  We'll see how well it works out; here's the record beginning on Oct. 31:

Colley-Woodrow, Oct. 31:
Mavericks (0.5030) defeated Clippers (0.4829)
Heat (0.5201) defeated Nets (0.5129)
Jazz (0.4556) upset Thunder (0.5235)
Lakers (0.5055) upsetWarriors (0.5155)
Score: 2-2
Record: 2-2

Colley-Woodrow, Nov. 1:
Bulls (0.4521) upset Blazers (0.5314)
Kings (0.4853) upset Raptors (0.5317)
Spurs (0.5187) defeated Clippers (0.4792)
Score: 1-2
Record: 3-4

Colley-Woodrow, Nov. 2:
Hawks (0.5013) defeated Cavaliers (0.4916)
Wizards (0.4559) upset 76ers (0.4859)
Celtics (0.5125) defeated Pistons (0.4788)
Heat (0.5317) defeated Timberwolves (0.4900)
Blazers (0.5074) defeated Bucks (0.4938)
Lakers (0.5329) defeated Grizzlies (0.5056)
Score: 5-1
Record: 8-5


So, not that great of a start.  We will persist!

Current Rankings:
Stein: 11-2
Colley: 10-3
W-L: 9-3
Woodrow: 8-5

This is SCARY

Before I talk about how I got these rankings, let me post them first:

	Team	W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Rating
1	Miami Heat	4-1	100.6	84.0	16.6	0.5393
2	Los Angeles Lakers	4-0	114.3	101.0	13.3	0.5372
3	Denver Nuggets	2-1	104.0	94.3	9.7	0.5335
4	New Orleans Hornets	3-0	98.3	92.0	6.3	0.5244
5	Boston Celtics	3-1	97.3	90.5	6.8	0.5191
6	Portland Trail Blazers	4-1	98.4	92.2	6.2	0.5113
7	Houston Rockets	0-3	110.7	117.0	-6.3	0.5098
8	Phoenix Suns	1-2	102.7	104.7	-2.0	0.5098
9	New York Knickerbockers	1-2	98.0	99.3	-1.3	0.5088
10	Atlanta Hawks	4-0	105.5	97.0	8.5	0.5083
11	Dallas Mavericks	2-1	96.7	86.7	10.0	0.5083
12	Orlando Magic	1-1	91.0	89.5	1.5	0.5079
13	San Antonio Spurs	2-1	103.0	98.7	4.3	0.5061
14	Toronto Raptors	1-2	100.7	96.7	4.0	0.5057
15	Golden State Warriors	2-1	108.0	108.7	-0.7	0.5048
16	Memphis Grizzlies	2-2	102.3	105.5	-3.3	0.5016
17	Chicago Bulls	2-1	102.0	98.3	3.7	0.4981
18	Utah Jazz	1-2	100.7	106.3	-5.7	0.4935
19	Sacramento Kings	3-1	108.8	108.5	0.3	0.4907
20	Indiana Pacers	2-1	104.0	103.0	1.0	0.4900
21	Cleveland Cavaliers	1-3	92.0	98.8	-6.8	0.4877
22	New Jersey Nets	2-1	95.0	99.7	-4.7	0.4876
23	Philadelphia 76ers	0-4	97.3	104.0	-6.8	0.4845
24	Milwaukee Bucks	1-3	87.5	92.3	-4.8	0.4827
25	Oklahoma City Thunder	2-1	103.3	106.3	-3.0	0.4810
26	Minnesota Timberwolves	1-3	99.5	110.0	-10.5	0.4796
27	Washington Wizards	1-2	98.0	108.7	-10.7	0.4736
28	Detroit Pistons	0-4	94.8	104.0	-9.3	0.4729
29	Los Angeles Clippers	0-4	87.5	100.8	-13.3	0.4724
30	Charlotte Bobcats	0-3	91.7	101.0	-9.3	0.4695

Explanation:This ranking system is newly designed, at least as far as I know, by me, on Nov. 3, 2010. If someone else has implemented this system, I am currently unaware of it.

I'm calling it, egotistically, the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method. It applies the Colley Matrix method, but scores EACH POINT as a win/loss. So when Boston played Miami on opening night, instead of playing one game, they played 168 games [Boston won 88-80]. Boston won 88 of them, and Miami won 80.

The Colley-Woodrow Matrix method is optimized for a high-scoring system such as the NBA, in which points are generally proportional to ability. I suspect that in games like the NFL, the ability to score 6-8 points all at once would limit the effectiveness of the point-to-win ratio.

I would further argue that the Colley-Woodrow method is superior to the Colley method, at least for high-scoring systems.  It's been proven for awhile that point differential is a more accurate indicator of future success than the win-loss ratio. 

Results:
Enough of the details...did you see what I saw?  Houston, an 0-3 team, is ranked #7...wow.  They're even better than the 4-0 Hawks?  And they even have a -6.7 differential!  What in the world is going on?

If you look at the numbers, it's actually not that surprising.  The strength of the Colley method is in its ability to accurately determine strength-of-schedule.  Houston, then, has one of the toughest SOS so far--Lakers, Nuggets, and Warriors--with an average differential of +7.4.  The Hawks, by contrast, have played the Grizz, 76ers, Wizards, and Cavs...not the greatest bunch (with apologies to Wall and Love).  Their average differential is a measly -6.9.


Although I'm a Mavs FFL, I definitely admire the Rockets and especially Daryl Morey (Dork Elvis).  I was surprised to see them down 0-3.  This ranking method, however, tells a different story, one where they are the equals (or betters) of a 4-0 team.

Prediction Contest for Nov. 3

Let's see if we can't shake things up a bit.

[EDIT:  I've now included the Colley-Woodrow predictions, labeled "Woodrow" for clarity.  Since the ratings seem to be so much closer, I'm setting their "equal" margin at 0.001]

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein	Woodrow
Mavericks at Nuggets	Nuggets	Even	Nuggets	Nuggets
Pistons at Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
Bobcats at Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets
Timberwolves at Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic
Pacers at 76ers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers
Bucks at Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Hornets at Rockets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets
Raptors at Jazz	Jazz	Even	Jazz	Raptors
Spurs at Suns	Spurs	Spurs	Spurs	Suns
Grizzlies at Warriors	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Warriors
Thunder at Clippers	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder
Lakers at Kings	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

...or not.  Stein and Colley are the same, with only two divergent opinions in the W-L column.  [But now we've got some disagreement!  The Warriors/Grizz and Suns/Spurs are pretty close games, at 0.003 and 0.004 respectively on the Colley-Woodrow rankings.  I may have to rethink the .001 margin.]

Prediction Results for Nov. 2

As stated before, this was a boring lineup, since all three prognosticators agreed on every game.  The results:

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein	Winner
Hawks at Cavaliers	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
76ers at Wizards	Wizards	Wizards	Wizards	Wizards
Celtics at Pistons	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Timberwolves at Heat	Heat	Heat	Heat	Heat
Magic at Knicks	Magic	Magic	Magic	POSTPONED
Blazers at Bucks	Blazers	Blazers	Blazers	Blazers
Grizzlies at Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

The good news is all of the games were predicted accurately.  The bad news is...well, nothing, I suppose. Everybody gets a huge boost!

Scores:
Colley:  6-0
W-L:  6-0
Stein:  6-0

Record:
Stein:  11-2
Colley:  10-3
W-L:  9-3

Nov. 2 Rankings

These rankings reflect 52 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season (one game was postponed):

Team	W-L	Rating
Los Angeles Lakers	4-0	0.8203
New Orleans Hornets	3-0	0.8091
Atlanta Hawks	4-0	0.7684
Miami Heat	4-1	0.6945
Portland Trail Blazers	4-1	0.6501
Sacramento Kings	3-1	0.6299
Boston Celtics	3-1	0.6267
New Jersey Nets	2-1	0.6106
Denver Nuggets	2-1	0.607
San Antonio Spurs	2-1	0.6056
Chicago Bulls	2-1	0.5853
Memphis Grizzlies	2-2	0.5754
Golden State Warriors	2-1	0.5677
Oklahoma City Thunder	2-1	0.5481
Orlando Magic	1-1	0.5247
Indiana Pacers	2-1	0.4996
Dallas Mavericks	2-1	0.4919
Phoenix Suns	1-2	0.4795
New York Knickerbockers	1-2	0.434
Utah Jazz	1-2	0.4269
Washington Wizards	1-2	0.4042
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-3	0.4031
Toronto Raptors	1-2	0.3934
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-3	0.3721
Milwaukee Bucks	1-3	0.3327
Houston Rockets	0-3	0.299
Detroit Pistons	0-4	0.2285
Philadelphia 76ers	0-4	0.2278
Los Angeles Clippers	0-4	0.2192
Charlotte Bobcats	0-3	0.1648

Prediction Contest for Nov. 2

Since I have time, let's predict the results for tonight's line-up:

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein
Hawks at Cavaliers	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
76ers at Wizards	Wizards	Wizards	Wizards
Celtics at Pistons	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Timberwolves at Heat	Heat	Heat	Heat
Magic at Knicks	Magic	Magic	Magic
Blazers at Bucks	Blazers	Blazers	Blazers
Grizzlies at Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

...well, that was unexciting.

Prediction Contest: Welcome Marc Stein!

Disclaimer: the Colley Matrix does not accurately predict games. I would argue, however, that it predicts games better than a simple Win-Loss comparison.

Just for fun, I've decided to include Marc Stein's NBA power rankings as well. Let's look at his record, beginning Oct. 31, when we began our own contest.

Stein, Oct. 31:
Mavericks (#6) defeated Clippers (#20)
Heat (#4) defeated Nets (#27)
Jazz (#7) upset Thunder (#5)
Lakers (#1) defeated Warriors (#25)
Score: 3-1
Record: 3-1

Stein, Nov. 1:
Bulls (#13) upset Blazers (#4)
Kings (#20) defeated Raptors (#26)
Spurs (#10) defeated Clippers (#30)
Score: 2-1
Record: 5-2

So, the current standings:

Colley	W-L	Stein
4-3	3-3	5-2

The human wins...for now.

Nov. 1 Rankings

These rankings reflect 46 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Colley
New Orleans Hornets	3-0	0.8205
Los Angeles Lakers	3-0	0.7586
Atlanta Hawks	3-0	0.7467
Miami Heat	3-1	0.6660
Sacramento Kings	3-1	0.6460
Memphis Grizzlies	2-1	0.6375
Portland Trail Blazers	3-1	0.6131
New Jersey Nets	2-1	0.6122
San Antonio Spurs	2-1	0.6099
Denver Nuggets	2-1	0.6053
Boston Celtics	2-1	0.6039
Chicago Bulls	2-1	0.5826
Golden State Warriors	2-1	0.5510
Oklahoma City Thunder	2-1	0.5510
Indiana Pacers	2-1	0.5155
Dallas Mavericks	2-1	0.5066
Orlando Magic	1-1	0.4940
Phoenix Suns	1-2	0.4589
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-2	0.4342
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-2	0.4300
New York Knicks	1-2	0.4234
Utah Jazz	1-2	0.4230
Toronto Raptors	1-2	0.3999
Milwaukee Bucks	1-2	0.3873
Washington Wizards	0-2	0.3102
Philadelphia 76ers	0-3	0.2856
Houston Rockets	0-3	0.2830
Detroit Pistons	0-3	0.2492
Los Angeles Clippers	0-4	0.2134
Charlotte Bobcats	0-3	0.1819

Yesterday, we tested the predictive capabilities of the Colley Matrix, and I think I would like to continue that examination...but in any good contest, we should keep a score!

For our game, an accurate prediction counts as a win, an upset counts as a loss, and we won't count performance against teams that are equal. For W-L, equal teams have an equal number of wins and losses. For Colley, equal teams are less than .01 different. Today, for instance, the Blazers and Nets are considered Colley equals, and the Hornets and Lakers are considered W-L equals, but not vice-versa.

Colley:
Bulls (0.4295) upset Blazers (0.7435)
Kings (0.5900) defeated Raptors (0.4755)
Spurs (0.5808) defeated Clippers (0.2648)
Score: 2-1
Record: 4-3

W-L:
Bulls (1-1) upset Blazers (3-0)
Kings (2-1) defeated Raptors (1-1)
Spurs (1-1) defeated Clippers (0-3)
Score: 2-1
Record: 3-3

Yesterday, the Lakers defeat of the Warriors didn't count as a win for W-L, because it was a matchup of equals. Colley Matrix has a slight lead!

Oct. 31 Rankings

These rankings reflect 43 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Colley
New Orleans Hornets	3-0	0.8137
Los Angeles Lakers	3-0	0.7675
Atlanta Hawks	3-0	0.7461
Portland Trail Blazers	3-0	0.7435
Miami Heat	3-1	0.6637
Memphis Grizzlies	2-1	0.6370
Boston Celtics	2-1	0.6132
Denver Nuggets	2-1	0.6042
New Jersey Nets	2-1	0.5921
Sacramento Kings	2-1	0.5900
San Antonio Spurs	1-1	0.5808
Golden State Warriors	2-1	0.5639
Dallas Mavericks	2-1	0.5167
Oklahoma City Thunder	2-1	0.5113
Indiana Pacers	2-1	0.5093
Orlando Magic	1-1	0.4934
Phoenix Suns	1-2	0.4863
Toronto Raptors	1-1	0.4755
New York Knicks	1-2	0.4664
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-2	0.4357
Chicago Bulls	1-1	0.4295
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-2	0.4221
Utah Jazz	1-2	0.4204
Milwaukee Bucks	1-2	0.3835
Washington Wizards	0-2	0.3099
Houston Rockets	0-3	0.2871
Philadelphia 76ers	0-3	0.2838
Los Angeles Clippers	0-3	0.2648
Detroit Pistons	0-3	0.2066
Charlotte Bobcats	0-3	0.1819

Though not a purely predictive system, I would argue that the Colley rankings are better at prediction than the win-loss record. Let's test that theory:

Mavericks (1-1, 0.4466) defeated Clippers (0-2, 0.3522)
Heat (2-1, 0.5638) upset Nets (2-0, 0.7249)
Jazz (0-2, 0.2508) upset Thunder (2-0, 0.6942)
Lakers (2-0, 0.6792) defeated Warriors (2-0, 0.6583)

Although we have two upsets, it's an upset based on both W-L record and Colley ranking. The Lakers/Warriors game, however, is a meeting of "equals"! When a 2-0 team meets another 2-0 team, we have no clue who will win...but the Colley rankings predicted a better performance from the Lakers, and they delivered!

Oct. 30 Rankings

These rankings reflect 39 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

We're fully connected!

Team	W-L	Colley
New Orleans Hornets	3-0	0.8044
Portland Trail Blazers	3-0	0.7504
Atlanta Hawks	3-0	0.7364
New Jersey Nets	2-0	0.7249
Oklahoma City Thunder	2-0	0.6942
Los Angeles Lakers	2-0	0.6792
Golden State Warriors	2-0	0.6583
Memphis Grizzlies	2-1	0.6213
Sacramento Kings	2-1	0.6171
Boston Celtics	2-1	0.5929
San Antonio Spurs	1-1	0.5762
Denver Nuggets	2-1	0.5672
Miami Heat	2-1	0.5638
Indiana Pacers	2-1	0.5003
Chicago Bulls	1-1	0.4942
Toronto Raptors	1-1	0.4752
Orlando Magic	1-1	0.4661
New York Knicks	1-2	0.4637
Dallas Mavericks	1-1	0.4466
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-2	0.4370
Phoenix Suns	1-2	0.4361
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-2	0.4234
Milwaukee Bucks	1-2	0.3786
Los Angeles Clippers	0-2	0.3522
Washington Wizards	0-2	0.3006
Detroit Pistons	0-3	0.2827
Houston Rockets	0-3	0.2810
Philadelphia 76ers	0-3	0.2601
Utah Jazz	0-2	0.2508
Charlotte Bobcats	0-3	0.1651

Almost immediately, one sees the advantage of the Colley Matrix over simple win-loss rankings.  Although we have three 3-0 teams, the Hornets hold the #1 spot due to their tougher schedule.  At the other end, the Jazz are only 0-2, but they rank below three 0-3 teams, because they lost to lesser opponents.

Oct. 29 Rankings

These rankings reflect 30 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Only two groupings left! We are clearly looking at East and West groupings, with a few exceptions. The Nets are currently the best team in the "West", and the Spurs are the second-best team in the "East".

Team	W-L	Colley
New Jersey Nets	2-0	0.7247
New Orleans Hornets	2-0	0.6917
Los Angeles Lakers	2-0	0.6903
Portland Trail Blazers	2-0	0.6903
Oklahoma City Thunder	2-0	0.6872
Golden State Warriors	2-0	0.6700
Sacramento Kings	1-1	0.5457
Denver Nuggets	1-1	0.4792
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-1	0.4583
Phoenix Suns	1-2	0.4211
Chicago Bulls	0-1	0.3957
Detroit Pistons	0-2	0.3530
Houston Rockets	0-2	0.3401
Los Angeles Clippers	0-2	0.3401
Milwaukee Bucks	0-2	0.2875
Utah Jazz	0-2	0.2251

Team	W-L	Colley
Atlanta Hawks	2-0	0.7164
San Antonio Spurs	1-0	0.6571
Boston Celtics	2-1	0.6326
Miami Heat	2-1	0.5874
Memphis Grizzlies	1-1	0.5396
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-1	0.5379
New York Knicks	1-1	0.5379
Toronto Raptors	1-1	0.5189
Orlando Magic	1-1	0.4784
Indiana Pacers	1-1	0.4714
Dallas Mavericks	1-1	0.4420
Washington Wizards	0-1	0.3261
Philadelphia 76ers	0-2	0.3259
Charlotte Bobcats	0-2	0.2283

Early Heat Returns

Continuing the theme of premature evaluation around here, Bill Simmons wrote an entire column evaluating two games--two!--and seeing where the Miami Heat is.

As usual, however, Simmons had an insight that bears repeating:

So there's hope for LeBron to snap out of this. Still, when you've been showered with affection for 10 years, and then it turns on a dime, how can it not affect you? Especially if you didn't see it coming. LeBron, Wade and Bosh thought, "This will be great! Three buddies playing together and winning titles! We've been talking about this for years! And we get to live in South Beach!" Mike Miller thought, "This will be great! I get to shoot 3s and win titles!" Udonis Haslem thought, "This will be great! I'll take a little less money to stay home and play with my boy Wade!" Juwan Howard, Jamaal Magloire and Zydrunas Ilgauskas thought, "Sure, we'd love to come along for the ride! This sounds like a blast!"
At no point did anyone think, "My God, people are going to HAAAAAAAATE us."

Oct. 28 Rankings

These rankings reflect 18 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Instead of ranking all of the groups together, I've decided to be more authentic.  Thus, each table shows the grouping of teams among which their ratings are accurate.

Team	W-L	Colley
Portland Trail Blazers	2-0	0.7273
Denver Nuggets	1-0	0.5909
Phoenix Suns	0-1	0.5000
Los Angeles Clippers	0-1	0.4091
Utah Jazz	0-1	0.2727

Team	W-L	Colley
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-0	0.6786
Boston Celtics	1-1	0.5357
Miami Heat	1-1	0.4643
Philadelphia 76ers	0-1	0.3214

Team	W-L	Colley
Golden State Warriors	1-0	0.6000
Los Angeles Lakers	1-0	0.6000
Houston Rockets	0-2	0.3000

Team	W-L	Colley
Orlando Magic	1-0	0.6250
Washington Wizards	0-1	0.3750

Team	W-L	Colley
Dallas Mavericks	1-0	0.6250
Charlotte Bobcats	0-1	0.3750

Team	W-L	Colley
Atlanta Hawks	1-0	0.6250
Memphis Grizzlies	0-1	0.3750

Team	W-L	Colley
New Jersey Nets	1-0	0.6250
Detroit Pistons	0-1	0.3750

Team	W-L	Colley
New York Knicks	1-0	0.6250
Toronto Raptors	0-1	0.3750

Team	W-L	Colley
New Orleans Hornets	1-0	0.6250
Milwaukee Bucks	0-1	0.3750

Team	W-L	Colley
Oklahoma City Thunder	1-0	0.6250
Chicago Bulls	0-1	0.3750

Team	W-L	Colley
San Antonio Spurs	1-0	0.6250
Indiana Pacers	0-1	0.3750

Team	W-L	Colley
Sacramento Kings	1-0	0.6250
Minnesota Timberwolves	0-1	0.3750

Not terribly exciting, but honest.  Connectivity or bust!

Oct. 27 Rankings

These rankings reflect 16 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Colley
Portland Trail Blazers	2-0	0.7000
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-0	0.6786
Atlanta Hawks	1-0	0.6250
Dallas Mavericks	1-0	0.6250
Denver Nuggets	1-0	0.6250
New Jersey Nets	1-0	0.6250
New Orleans Hornets	1-0	0.6250
New York Knicks	1-0	0.6250
Oklahoma City Thunder	1-0	0.6250
Sacramento Kings	1-0	0.6250
San Antonio Spurs	1-0	0.6250
Golden State Warriors	1-0	0.6000
Los Angeles Lakers	1-0	0.6000
Boston Celtics	1-1	0.5357
Orlando Magic	0-0	0.5000
Washington Wizards	0-0	0.5000
Miami Heat	1-1	0.4643
Los Angeles Clippers	0-1	0.4000
Phoenix Suns	0-1	0.4000
Charlotte Bobcats	0-1	0.3750
Chicago Bulls	0-1	0.3750
Detroit Pistons	0-1	0.3750
Indiana Pacers	0-1	0.3750
Memphis Grizzlies	0-1	0.3750
Milwaukee Bucks	0-1	0.3750
Minnesota Timberwolves	0-1	0.3750
Toronto Raptors	0-1	0.3750
Utah Jazz	0-1	0.3750
Philadelphia 76ers	0-1	0.3214
Houston Rockets	0-2	0.3000

First of all, we have not "connected" all of the teams...not even close.  Most groupings are a single-pair (the .625 and .375), unrelated to every other single-pair.  The largest grouping is composed of four teams:

Cleveland Cavaliers	1-0	0.6786
Boston Celtics	1-1	0.5357
Miami Heat	1-1	0.4643
Philadelphia 76ers	0-1	0.3214

As you can see, the Cavs are "better" than other 1-0 teams by virtue of having beaten a 1-1 team, while the other 1-0 teams beat lesser, 0-1 teams.  The Lakers and Warriors actually rank lower still, because they beat an 0-2 team.  (I feel I should mention that Houston lost those two games by an average of three points.)

By the way, the rankings should always average to 0.5, and each grouping's rankings should likewise average to 0.5.  You notice that Boston and Miami are almost 0.5, which would reflect a 1-1 record, but are instead slightly higher/lower because of their relative performance.

Way to go, Cleveland!  This is probably the only time you get the number 2 spot.  Enjoy.

About This Blog

This is, truthfully, an exercise to keep me doing something "productive" when I feel like wasting time.  It is also an attempt to experiment with a rating system that intrigues me, but applied to other settings.  This is purely for personal amusement, and the Colley Matrix method is copyrighted by Wesley N. Colley.

The Colley Matrix method is a evaluative tool designed to better rate teams' relative strength using only win-loss records against individual opponents.  The Colley Matrix website applies this method to NCAA FBS football teams and NCAA Division I Men's Basketball teams.  Here, I have applied it to the 2010-11 NBA scores.  My spreadsheet can be found here, and you are welcome to copy it for your own manipulation.  If you are interested in updating the spreadsheet, or if you have a way to update the spreadsheet automatically, please let me know and I would be grateful.

The strength of the Colley Matrix method is that it provides a more accurate strength-of-schedule than a simple win-loss record.  The NBA is divided into two conferences of three divisions each.  From Wikipedia:

A team faces opponents in its own division four times a year (16 games), teams from the other two divisions in its conference either three or four times (36 games), and teams in the other conference twice apiece (30 games).

Thus, a team's win-loss record is affected significantly by its division's and conference's strength.  A good team in a weaker division will win more games than an equally good team in a strong division.

The Colley Matrix method is not a predictive instrument.  Studies have shown that point-differential is a much better indicator of future success, and others have utilized this with some success.  John Hollinger's ranking system (on ESPN) is not necessarily the best, but it is definitely the most accessible.  For more on what the Colley Matrix method does and does not do, please read Dr. Colley's thesis.

Intuitively, the Colley Matrix method produces better results given a larger sampling; early results are sketchy, and a team with a 7-0 record is much more likely to be ranked higher than a team with a 6-0 record, regardless of who they play.  Given the NBA's 82-game schedule, this should not be a problem.

I am curious to see how these results match up against an adjusted-average round-robin ranking of teams.  That is, if you took the average win-loss record of each team vs. each team--a 2-2 record becomes a 1-1 record, a 2-1 became a 1.33-0.66, and an 0-2 became a 0-2--how would those rankings compare to the Colley Matrix?  Both methods compensate for uneven pairings.  For this question, I could just use previous seasons, but I am not ready for that task quite yet.

I will blog about the results, posting the rankings and sometimes commenting on them as well.  I cannot promise a daily update, so copy my spreadsheet if you can't wait.

Peace, Chris

[EDIT:  In hopes of creating a better predicting instrument, I have designed the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method (often referred to as "Woodrow" or "CW" in tables).  Apologies for the name.  This matrix treats each point as a win or loss, so that teams routinely play about 200 "games" per game.  This allows point differential to matter while accounting for strength-of-schedule.  A team that scores +10 on a team that typically loses by -10 is not nearly as impressive as the team that scores +5 on a team that usually wins by +5.]