Monday, November 8, 2010

Nov. 4 Rankings

These rankings reflect 66 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

TeamW-LPFPADiffWoodrowColley
Miami Heat4-1100.684.016.60.54300.6894
Orlando Magic2-1103.388.315.00.53700.5866
Los Angeles Lakers5-0113.8100.813.00.53120.8564
Denver Nuggets2-2103.396.37.00.53000.5337
New Orleans Hornets4-0100.593.86.80.52510.8039
Dallas Mavericks3-198.090.37.80.51790.6224
Boston Celtics4-198.892.86.00.51060.6523
Atlanta Hawks5-0103.294.68.60.51050.7662
San Antonio Spurs3-1105.3101.53.80.50740.6721
Houston Rockets0-4107.8114.5-6.80.50730.3119
Golden State Warriors3-1109.8108.81.00.50700.6776
Phoenix Suns1-3104.5106.5-2.00.50620.4272
Portland Trail Blazers4-299.794.75.00.50380.5708
New York Knickerbockers2-2103.5102.51.00.50100.4999
Philadelphia 76ers1-498.098.2-0.20.50030.3236
Utah Jazz2-2106.8106.80.00.50010.4638
Memphis Grizzlies2-3103.6107.4-3.80.49910.5330
Chicago Bulls2-2104.5103.80.80.49120.4617
Washington Wizards1-298.0108.7-10.70.48930.4353
Toronto Raptors1-3102.5103.8-1.30.48920.3147
Sacramento Kings3-2107.0109.2-2.20.48550.5449
Milwaukee Bucks1-490.494.8-4.40.48540.3055
Los Angeles Clippers1-491.499.0-7.60.48270.3643
New Jersey Nets2-292.096.0-4.00.48210.4549
Indiana Pacers2-296.8102.5-5.80.48130.4371
Cleveland Cavaliers1-392.098.8-6.80.48090.3797
Oklahoma City Thunder3-2101.8106.4-4.60.47890.5075
Charlotte Bobcats1-390.096.5-6.50.47430.3033
Minnesota Timberwolves1-496.8113.6-16.80.47100.3085
Detroit Pistons0-592.8102.0-9.20.47060.1918

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

Prediction Results for Nov. 3

Apologies for the lack of updates. Catching up tonight.

GameColleyW-LSteinWoodrowWinner
Mavericks at NuggetsNuggetsEvenNuggetsNuggetsMavericks
Pistons at HawksHawksHawksHawksHawksHawks
Bobcats at NetsNetsNetsNetsNetsBobcats
Timberwolves at MagicMagicMagicMagicMagicMagic
Pacers at 76ersPacersPacersPacersPacers76ers
Bucks at CelticsCelticsCelticsCelticsCelticsCeltics
Hornets at RocketsHornetsHornetsHornetsHornetsHornets
Raptors at JazzJazzEvenJazzRaptorsJazz
Spurs at SunsSpursSpursSpursSunsSpurs
Grizzlies at WarriorsGrizzliesGrizzliesGrizzliesWarriorsWarriors
Thunder at ClippersThunderThunderThunderThunderClippers
Lakers at KingsLakersLakersLakersLakersLakers

Scores
Colley: 7-5
W-L: 6-4
Stein: 7-5
Woodrow: 6-6

Record
Stein: 18-7
Colley: 17-8
W-L: 15-7
Woodrow: 14-11
Home Team: 37-27

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Nov. 3 Rankings

These rankings reflect 64 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

TeamW-LPFPADiffWoodrowColley
Miami Heat4-1100.684.016.60.54290.6879
Orlando Magic2-1103.388.315.00.53700.5865
Los Angeles Lakers5-0113.8100.813.00.53150.8580
Denver Nuggets2-2103.396.37.00.52970.5317
New Orleans Hornets4-0100.593.86.80.52550.8060
Dallas Mavericks3-198.090.37.80.51790.6227
Portland Trail Blazers4-198.492.26.20.51080.6567
Boston Celtics4-198.892.86.00.51030.6415
Atlanta Hawks5-0103.294.68.60.51020.7655
San Antonio Spurs3-1105.3101.53.80.50790.6749
Phoenix Suns1-3104.5106.5-2.00.50760.4398
Houston Rockets0-4107.8114.5-6.80.50740.3123
Golden State Warriors3-1109.8108.81.00.50710.6782
Philadelphia 76ers1-498.098.2-0.20.50030.3235
New York Knickerbockers1-298.099.3-1.30.50000.4191
Memphis Grizzlies2-3103.6107.4-3.80.49920.5334
Utah Jazz2-2106.8106.80.00.49830.4493
Chicago Bulls2-1102.098.33.70.49360.5551
Washington Wizards1-298.0108.7-10.70.48920.4351
Toronto Raptors1-3102.5103.8-1.30.48830.2975
Milwaukee Bucks1-490.494.8-4.40.48680.3170
Sacramento Kings3-2107.0109.2-2.20.48520.5420
Los Angeles Clippers1-491.499.0-7.60.48270.3656
New Jersey Nets2-292.096.0-4.00.48180.4545
Indiana Pacers2-296.8102.5-5.80.48150.4379
Cleveland Cavaliers1-392.098.8-6.80.48050.3744
Charlotte Bobcats1-390.096.5-6.50.47470.3053
Oklahoma City Thunder2-2100.5106.5-6.00.47170.4270
Minnesota Timberwolves1-496.8113.6-16.80.47120.3096
Detroit Pistons0-592.8102.0-9.20.46930.1919

(Inital rankings are sorted by the Colley-Woodrow rankings, but you can click a different heading to re-sort the table! The W-L column sorts by W-L %, rather than games ahead/behind, so a 4-2 team is equal to a 2-1 team.)

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Prediction Contest: Welcome Colley-Woodrow!

Disclaimer:  the Colley Matrix does not accurately predict games.  I would argue, however, that it predicts games better than a simple Win-Loss comparison.

Having worked out the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method, I think we have a true prognosticator to challenge Marc Stein.  Because of the closer rankings (nothing beyond 0.4-0.5), I'm setting it's "equal" margin at 0.001.  We'll see how well it works out; here's the record beginning on Oct. 31:

Colley-Woodrow, Oct. 31:
Mavericks (0.5030) defeated Clippers (0.4829)
Heat (0.5201) defeated Nets (0.5129)
Jazz (0.4556) upset Thunder (0.5235)
Lakers (0.5055) upsetWarriors (0.5155)
Score: 2-2
Record: 2-2


Colley-Woodrow, Nov. 1:
Bulls (0.4521) upset Blazers (0.5314)
Kings (0.4853) upset Raptors (0.5317)
Spurs (0.5187) defeated Clippers (0.4792)
Score: 1-2
Record: 3-4


Colley-Woodrow, Nov. 2:
Hawks (0.5013) defeated Cavaliers (0.4916)
Wizards (0.4559) upset 76ers (0.4859)
Celtics (0.5125) defeated Pistons (0.4788)
Heat (0.5317) defeated Timberwolves (0.4900)
Blazers (0.5074) defeated Bucks (0.4938)
Lakers (0.5329) defeated Grizzlies (0.5056)
Score: 5-1
Record: 8-5



So, not that great of a start.  We will persist!

Current Rankings:
Stein: 11-2
Colley: 10-3
W-L: 9-3
Woodrow: 8-5

This is SCARY

Before I talk about how I got these rankings, let me post them first:

TeamW-LPFPADiffRating
1Miami Heat4-1100.684.016.60.5393
2Los Angeles Lakers4-0114.3101.013.30.5372
3Denver Nuggets2-1104.094.39.70.5335
4New Orleans Hornets3-098.392.06.30.5244
5Boston Celtics3-197.390.56.80.5191
6Portland Trail Blazers4-198.492.26.20.5113
7Houston Rockets0-3110.7117.0-6.30.5098
8Phoenix Suns1-2102.7104.7-2.00.5098
9New York Knickerbockers1-298.099.3-1.30.5088
10Atlanta Hawks4-0105.597.08.50.5083
11Dallas Mavericks2-196.786.710.00.5083
12Orlando Magic1-191.089.51.50.5079
13San Antonio Spurs2-1103.098.74.30.5061
14Toronto Raptors1-2100.796.74.00.5057
15Golden State Warriors2-1108.0108.7-0.70.5048
16Memphis Grizzlies2-2102.3105.5-3.30.5016
17Chicago Bulls2-1102.098.33.70.4981
18Utah Jazz1-2100.7106.3-5.70.4935
19Sacramento Kings3-1108.8108.50.30.4907
20Indiana Pacers2-1104.0103.01.00.4900
21Cleveland Cavaliers1-392.098.8-6.80.4877
22New Jersey Nets2-195.099.7-4.70.4876
23Philadelphia 76ers0-497.3104.0-6.80.4845
24Milwaukee Bucks1-387.592.3-4.80.4827
25Oklahoma City Thunder2-1103.3106.3-3.00.4810
26Minnesota Timberwolves1-399.5110.0-10.50.4796
27Washington Wizards1-298.0108.7-10.70.4736
28Detroit Pistons0-494.8104.0-9.30.4729
29Los Angeles Clippers0-487.5100.8-13.30.4724
30Charlotte Bobcats0-391.7101.0-9.30.4695

Explanation:This ranking system is newly designed, at least as far as I know, by me, on Nov. 3, 2010. If someone else has implemented this system, I am currently unaware of it.

I'm calling it, egotistically, the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method. It applies the Colley Matrix method, but scores EACH POINT as a win/loss. So when Boston played Miami on opening night, instead of playing one game, they played 168 games [Boston won 88-80]. Boston won 88 of them, and Miami won 80.

The Colley-Woodrow Matrix method is optimized for a high-scoring system such as the NBA, in which points are generally proportional to ability. I suspect that in games like the NFL, the ability to score 6-8 points all at once would limit the effectiveness of the point-to-win ratio.

I would further argue that the Colley-Woodrow method is superior to the Colley method, at least for high-scoring systems.  It's been proven for awhile that point differential is a more accurate indicator of future success than the win-loss ratio. 

Results:
Enough of the details...did you see what I saw?  Houston, an 0-3 team, is ranked #7...wow.  They're even better than the 4-0 Hawks?  And they even have a -6.7 differential!  What in the world is going on?

If you look at the numbers, it's actually not that surprising.  The strength of the Colley method is in its ability to accurately determine strength-of-schedule.  Houston, then, has one of the toughest SOS so far--Lakers, Nuggets, and Warriors--with an average differential of +7.4.  The Hawks, by contrast, have played the Grizz, 76ers, Wizards, and Cavs...not the greatest bunch (with apologies to Wall and Love).  Their average differential is a measly -6.9.


Although I'm a Mavs FFL, I definitely admire the Rockets and especially Daryl Morey (Dork Elvis).  I was surprised to see them down 0-3.  This ranking method, however, tells a different story, one where they are the equals (or betters) of a 4-0 team.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Prediction Contest for Nov. 3

Let's see if we can't shake things up a bit.

[EDIT:  I've now included the Colley-Woodrow predictions, labeled "Woodrow" for clarity.  Since the ratings seem to be so much closer, I'm setting their "equal" margin at 0.001]

GameColleyW-LSteinWoodrow
Mavericks at NuggetsNuggetsEvenNuggetsNuggets
Pistons at HawksHawksHawksHawksHawks
Bobcats at NetsNetsNetsNetsNets
Timberwolves at MagicMagicMagicMagicMagic
Pacers at 76ersPacersPacersPacersPacers
Bucks at CelticsCelticsCelticsCelticsCeltics
Hornets at RocketsHornetsHornetsHornetsHornets
Raptors at JazzJazzEvenJazzRaptors
Spurs at SunsSpursSpursSpursSuns
Grizzlies at WarriorsGrizzliesGrizzliesGrizzliesWarriors
Thunder at ClippersThunderThunderThunderThunder
Lakers at KingsLakersLakersLakersLakers

...or not.  Stein and Colley are the same, with only two divergent opinions in the W-L column.  [But now we've got some disagreement!  The Warriors/Grizz and Suns/Spurs are pretty close games, at 0.003 and 0.004 respectively on the Colley-Woodrow rankings.  I may have to rethink the .001 margin.]

Prediction Results for Nov. 2

As stated before, this was a boring lineup, since all three prognosticators agreed on every game.  The results:

GameColleyW-LSteinWinner
Hawks at CavaliersHawksHawksHawksHawks
76ers at WizardsWizardsWizardsWizardsWizards
Celtics at PistonsCelticsCelticsCelticsCeltics
Timberwolves at HeatHeatHeatHeatHeat
Magic at KnicksMagicMagicMagicPOSTPONED
Blazers at BucksBlazersBlazersBlazersBlazers
Grizzlies at LakersLakersLakersLakersLakers

The good news is all of the games were predicted accurately.  The bad news is...well, nothing, I suppose. Everybody gets a huge boost!

Scores:
Colley:  6-0
W-L:  6-0
Stein:  6-0

Record:
Stein:  11-2
Colley:  10-3
W-L:  9-3

Nov. 2 Rankings

These rankings reflect 52 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season (one game was postponed):
TeamW-LRating
Los Angeles Lakers4-00.8203
New Orleans Hornets3-00.8091
Atlanta Hawks4-00.7684
Miami Heat4-10.6945
Portland Trail Blazers4-10.6501
Sacramento Kings3-10.6299
Boston Celtics3-10.6267
New Jersey Nets2-10.6106
Denver Nuggets2-10.607
San Antonio Spurs2-10.6056
Chicago Bulls2-10.5853
Memphis Grizzlies2-20.5754
Golden State Warriors2-10.5677
Oklahoma City Thunder2-10.5481
Orlando Magic1-10.5247
Indiana Pacers2-10.4996
Dallas Mavericks2-10.4919
Phoenix Suns1-20.4795
New York Knickerbockers1-20.434
Utah Jazz1-20.4269
Washington Wizards1-20.4042
Cleveland Cavaliers1-30.4031
Toronto Raptors1-20.3934
Minnesota Timberwolves1-30.3721
Milwaukee Bucks1-30.3327
Houston Rockets0-30.299
Detroit Pistons0-40.2285
Philadelphia 76ers0-40.2278
Los Angeles Clippers0-40.2192
Charlotte Bobcats0-30.1648

Prediction Contest for Nov. 2

Since I have time, let's predict the results for tonight's line-up:

GameColleyW-LStein
Hawks at CavaliersHawksHawksHawks
76ers at WizardsWizardsWizardsWizards
Celtics at PistonsCelticsCelticsCeltics
Timberwolves at HeatHeatHeatHeat
Magic at KnicksMagicMagicMagic
Blazers at BucksBlazersBlazersBlazers
Grizzlies at LakersLakersLakersLakers

...well, that was unexciting.

Prediction Contest: Welcome Marc Stein!

Disclaimer: the Colley Matrix does not accurately predict games. I would argue, however, that it predicts games better than a simple Win-Loss comparison.

Just for fun, I've decided to include Marc Stein's NBA power rankings as well. Let's look at his record, beginning Oct. 31, when we began our own contest.

Stein, Oct. 31:
Mavericks (#6) defeated Clippers (#20)
Heat (#4) defeated Nets (#27)
Jazz (#7) upset Thunder (#5)
Lakers (#1) defeated Warriors (#25)
Score: 3-1
Record: 3-1

Stein, Nov. 1:
Bulls (#13) upset Blazers (#4)
Kings (#20) defeated Raptors (#26)
Spurs (#10) defeated Clippers (#30)
Score: 2-1
Record: 5-2

So, the current standings:

ColleyW-LStein
4-33-35-2

The human wins...for now.

Nov. 1 Rankings

These rankings reflect 46 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

TeamW-LColley
New Orleans Hornets3-00.8205
Los Angeles Lakers3-00.7586
Atlanta Hawks3-00.7467
Miami Heat3-10.6660
Sacramento Kings3-10.6460
Memphis Grizzlies2-10.6375
Portland Trail Blazers3-10.6131
New Jersey Nets2-10.6122
San Antonio Spurs2-10.6099
Denver Nuggets2-10.6053
Boston Celtics2-10.6039
Chicago Bulls2-10.5826
Golden State Warriors2-10.5510
Oklahoma City Thunder2-10.5510
Indiana Pacers2-10.5155
Dallas Mavericks2-10.5066
Orlando Magic1-10.4940
Phoenix Suns1-20.4589
Minnesota Timberwolves1-20.4342
Cleveland Cavaliers1-20.4300
New York Knicks1-20.4234
Utah Jazz1-20.4230
Toronto Raptors1-20.3999
Milwaukee Bucks1-20.3873
Washington Wizards 0-20.3102
Philadelphia 76ers0-30.2856
Houston Rockets0-30.2830
Detroit Pistons0-30.2492
Los Angeles Clippers0-40.2134
Charlotte Bobcats0-30.1819

Yesterday, we tested the predictive capabilities of the Colley Matrix, and I think I would like to continue that examination...but in any good contest, we should keep a score!

For our game, an accurate prediction counts as a win, an upset counts as a loss, and we won't count performance against teams that are equal. For W-L, equal teams have an equal number of wins and losses. For Colley, equal teams are less than .01 different. Today, for instance, the Blazers and Nets are considered Colley equals, and the Hornets and Lakers are considered W-L equals, but not vice-versa.

Colley:
Bulls (0.4295) upset Blazers (0.7435)
Kings (0.5900) defeated Raptors (0.4755)
Spurs (0.5808) defeated Clippers (0.2648)
Score: 2-1
Record: 4-3

W-L:
Bulls (1-1) upset Blazers (3-0)
Kings (2-1) defeated Raptors (1-1)
Spurs (1-1) defeated Clippers (0-3)
Score: 2-1
Record: 3-3

Yesterday, the Lakers defeat of the Warriors didn't count as a win for W-L, because it was a matchup of equals. Colley Matrix has a slight lead!

Monday, November 1, 2010

Oct. 31 Rankings

These rankings reflect 43 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

TeamW-LColley
New Orleans Hornets3-00.8137
Los Angeles Lakers3-00.7675
Atlanta Hawks3-00.7461
Portland Trail Blazers3-00.7435
Miami Heat3-10.6637
Memphis Grizzlies2-10.6370
Boston Celtics2-10.6132
Denver Nuggets2-10.6042
New Jersey Nets2-10.5921
Sacramento Kings2-10.5900
San Antonio Spurs1-10.5808
Golden State Warriors2-10.5639
Dallas Mavericks2-10.5167
Oklahoma City Thunder2-10.5113
Indiana Pacers2-10.5093
Orlando Magic1-10.4934
Phoenix Suns1-20.4863
Toronto Raptors1-10.4755
New York Knicks1-20.4664
Cleveland Cavaliers1-20.4357
Chicago Bulls1-10.4295
Minnesota Timberwolves1-20.4221
Utah Jazz1-20.4204
Milwaukee Bucks1-20.3835
Washington Wizards 0-20.3099
Houston Rockets0-30.2871
Philadelphia 76ers0-30.2838
Los Angeles Clippers0-30.2648
Detroit Pistons0-30.2066
Charlotte Bobcats0-30.1819

Though not a purely predictive system, I would argue that the Colley rankings are better at prediction than the win-loss record. Let's test that theory:

Mavericks (1-1, 0.4466) defeated Clippers (0-2, 0.3522)
Heat (2-1, 0.5638) upset Nets (2-0, 0.7249)
Jazz (0-2, 0.2508) upset Thunder (2-0, 0.6942)
Lakers (2-0, 0.6792) defeated Warriors (2-0, 0.6583)

Although we have two upsets, it's an upset based on both W-L record and Colley ranking. The Lakers/Warriors game, however, is a meeting of "equals"! When a 2-0 team meets another 2-0 team, we have no clue who will win...but the Colley rankings predicted a better performance from the Lakers, and they delivered!