Prediction Results for Nov. 3

Apologies for the lack of updates. Catching up tonight.

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein	Woodrow	Winner
Mavericks at Nuggets	Nuggets	Even	Nuggets	Nuggets	Mavericks
Pistons at Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
Bobcats at Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets	Bobcats
Timberwolves at Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic
Pacers at 76ers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers	76ers
Bucks at Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Hornets at Rockets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets
Raptors at Jazz	Jazz	Even	Jazz	Raptors	Jazz
Spurs at Suns	Spurs	Spurs	Spurs	Suns	Spurs
Grizzlies at Warriors	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Warriors	Warriors
Thunder at Clippers	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder	Clippers
Lakers at Kings	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

Scores
Colley: 7-5
W-L: 6-4
Stein: 7-5
Woodrow: 6-6

Record
Stein: 18-7
Colley: 17-8
W-L: 15-7
Woodrow: 14-11
Home Team: 37-27

Prediction Contest: Welcome Colley-Woodrow!

Disclaimer:  the Colley Matrix does not accurately predict games.  I would argue, however, that it predicts games better than a simple Win-Loss comparison.

Having worked out the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method, I think we have a true prognosticator to challenge Marc Stein.  Because of the closer rankings (nothing beyond 0.4-0.5), I'm setting it's "equal" margin at 0.001.  We'll see how well it works out; here's the record beginning on Oct. 31:

Colley-Woodrow, Oct. 31:
Mavericks (0.5030) defeated Clippers (0.4829)
Heat (0.5201) defeated Nets (0.5129)
Jazz (0.4556) upset Thunder (0.5235)
Lakers (0.5055) upsetWarriors (0.5155)
Score: 2-2
Record: 2-2

Colley-Woodrow, Nov. 1:
Bulls (0.4521) upset Blazers (0.5314)
Kings (0.4853) upset Raptors (0.5317)
Spurs (0.5187) defeated Clippers (0.4792)
Score: 1-2
Record: 3-4

Colley-Woodrow, Nov. 2:
Hawks (0.5013) defeated Cavaliers (0.4916)
Wizards (0.4559) upset 76ers (0.4859)
Celtics (0.5125) defeated Pistons (0.4788)
Heat (0.5317) defeated Timberwolves (0.4900)
Blazers (0.5074) defeated Bucks (0.4938)
Lakers (0.5329) defeated Grizzlies (0.5056)
Score: 5-1
Record: 8-5


So, not that great of a start.  We will persist!

Current Rankings:
Stein: 11-2
Colley: 10-3
W-L: 9-3
Woodrow: 8-5

Prediction Contest for Nov. 3

Let's see if we can't shake things up a bit.

[EDIT:  I've now included the Colley-Woodrow predictions, labeled "Woodrow" for clarity.  Since the ratings seem to be so much closer, I'm setting their "equal" margin at 0.001]

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein	Woodrow
Mavericks at Nuggets	Nuggets	Even	Nuggets	Nuggets
Pistons at Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
Bobcats at Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets
Timberwolves at Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic
Pacers at 76ers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers
Bucks at Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Hornets at Rockets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets
Raptors at Jazz	Jazz	Even	Jazz	Raptors
Spurs at Suns	Spurs	Spurs	Spurs	Suns
Grizzlies at Warriors	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Warriors
Thunder at Clippers	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder
Lakers at Kings	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

...or not.  Stein and Colley are the same, with only two divergent opinions in the W-L column.  [But now we've got some disagreement!  The Warriors/Grizz and Suns/Spurs are pretty close games, at 0.003 and 0.004 respectively on the Colley-Woodrow rankings.  I may have to rethink the .001 margin.]

Prediction Results for Nov. 2

As stated before, this was a boring lineup, since all three prognosticators agreed on every game.  The results:

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein	Winner
Hawks at Cavaliers	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
76ers at Wizards	Wizards	Wizards	Wizards	Wizards
Celtics at Pistons	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Timberwolves at Heat	Heat	Heat	Heat	Heat
Magic at Knicks	Magic	Magic	Magic	POSTPONED
Blazers at Bucks	Blazers	Blazers	Blazers	Blazers
Grizzlies at Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

The good news is all of the games were predicted accurately.  The bad news is...well, nothing, I suppose. Everybody gets a huge boost!

Scores:
Colley:  6-0
W-L:  6-0
Stein:  6-0

Record:
Stein:  11-2
Colley:  10-3
W-L:  9-3

Prediction Contest for Nov. 2

Since I have time, let's predict the results for tonight's line-up:

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein
Hawks at Cavaliers	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
76ers at Wizards	Wizards	Wizards	Wizards
Celtics at Pistons	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Timberwolves at Heat	Heat	Heat	Heat
Magic at Knicks	Magic	Magic	Magic
Blazers at Bucks	Blazers	Blazers	Blazers
Grizzlies at Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

...well, that was unexciting.

Prediction Contest: Welcome Marc Stein!

Disclaimer: the Colley Matrix does not accurately predict games. I would argue, however, that it predicts games better than a simple Win-Loss comparison.

Just for fun, I've decided to include Marc Stein's NBA power rankings as well. Let's look at his record, beginning Oct. 31, when we began our own contest.

Stein, Oct. 31:
Mavericks (#6) defeated Clippers (#20)
Heat (#4) defeated Nets (#27)
Jazz (#7) upset Thunder (#5)
Lakers (#1) defeated Warriors (#25)
Score: 3-1
Record: 3-1

Stein, Nov. 1:
Bulls (#13) upset Blazers (#4)
Kings (#20) defeated Raptors (#26)
Spurs (#10) defeated Clippers (#30)
Score: 2-1
Record: 5-2

So, the current standings:

Colley	W-L	Stein
4-3	3-3	5-2

The human wins...for now.