Dec. 14 Power Rankings

These rankings reflect 358 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	Adj. W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	18-8	17-9	100.8	91.0	9.8	0.5246	0.6632
Boston Celtics	19-4	18-5	100.7	91.0	9.7	0.5240	0.7900
San Antonio Spurs	20-3	19-4	106.4	96.5	10.0	0.5223	0.8196
Dallas Mavericks	19-5	19-5	98.8	93.0	5.7	0.5162	0.7837
Los Angeles Lakers	17-7	15-9	106.4	98.6	7.8	0.5134	0.6214
Utah Jazz	18-8	18-8	101.3	97.3	4.0	0.5128	0.7048
Orlando Magic	16-8	15-9	97.0	91.9	5.1	0.5111	0.6214
Chicago Bulls	15-8	15-8	99.7	96.3	3.3	0.5099	0.6711
New Orleans Hornets	14-10	15-9	93.2	92.0	1.2	0.5067	0.6157
Denver Nuggets	14-9	14-9	106.7	104.9	1.8	0.5056	0.6207
Atlanta Hawks	16-9	15-10	98.8	96.1	2.7	0.5052	0.6041
Oklahoma City Thunder	17-8	17-8	103.2	101.9	1.3	0.5039	0.6779
Indiana Pacers	11-12	11-12	98.5	97.2	1.3	0.5037	0.4751
Philadelphia 76ers	8-15	8-15	98.0	97.7	0.3	0.4998	0.3631
Houston Rockets	9-14	10-13	104.9	104.9	0.0	0.4995	0.4166
Portland Trail Blazers	12-13	12-13	93.9	94.6	-0.7	0.4993	0.4997
Milwaukee Bucks	10-13	11-12	92.0	93.2	-1.2	0.4992	0.4643
Phoenix Suns	11-12	11-12	108.1	109.5	-1.4	0.4988	0.4940
New York Knickerbockers	16-9	14-11	108.5	106.6	2.0	0.4987	0.5578
Memphis Grizzlies	11-14	11-14	99.6	100.9	-1.3	0.4972	0.4534
Toronto Raptors	9-15	9-15	102.9	105.5	-2.6	0.4937	0.3852
Charlotte Bobcats	8-15	8-15	93.6	97.0	-3.4	0.4923	0.3687
Los Angeles Clippers	5-20	7-18	95.8	101.7	-5.9	0.4871	0.2677
Golden State Warriors	8-16	9-15	100.4	107.0	-6.6	0.4869	0.3863
New Jersey Nets	6-18	7-17	93.3	99.1	-5.8	0.4869	0.2890
Minnesota Timberwolves	6-18	7-17	101.8	109.1	-7.4	0.4836	0.2956
Detroit Pistons	7-18	7-18	94.4	100.8	-6.5	0.4817	0.2868
Washington Wizards	6-16	6-16	98.0	106.3	-8.4	0.4800	0.2852
Sacramento Kings	5-16	5-16	94.4	101.1	-6.8	0.4797	0.2226
Cleveland Cavaliers	7-17	7-17	93.2	102.9	-9.7	0.4764	0.2954

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

I've added a line called "Adjusted W-L" based on the Colley method.  Essentially, it tells you how many games a team has won or lost if everyone had an equal strength of schedule.  So when Marc Stein says that LA has had the easiest schedule of anyone so far, he's not kidding:  the adjusted W-L drops them from 17-7 to 15-9.  The Knicks are another minus-two team at the moment, looking better than they should because of their easy schedule.

On the other hand, the Clippers(!) are a plus-two team, meaning on a level playing field, they'd have won two more games.

Dec. 2 Rankings

These rankings reflect 273 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	12-8	101.3	93.1	8.2	0.5217	0.5882
Orlando Magic	14-4	99.1	91.1	7.9	0.5191	0.7186
San Antonio Spurs	14-3	112.8	104.1	8.7	0.5191	0.8189
Boston Celtics	15-4	95.4	88.1	7.3	0.5186	0.7230
Dallas Mavericks	14-4	97.9	92.2	5.7	0.5177	0.7786
Utah Jazz	15-5	102.0	96.9	5.1	0.5142	0.7431
New Orleans Hornets	13-5	95.7	91.3	4.3	0.5141	0.7300
Los Angeles Lakers	13-6	108.2	100.6	7.6	0.5130	0.6098
Denver Nuggets	11-6	105.9	103.0	2.9	0.5091	0.6597
Indiana Pacers	9-8	99.6	97.2	2.4	0.5071	0.5249
Chicago Bulls	9-8	94.2	93.2	1.1	0.5043	0.5397
Atlanta Hawks	12-7	100.8	97.8	2.9	0.5032	0.5742
Oklahoma City Thunder	13-6	103.3	102.9	0.4	0.5030	0.6879
Phoenix Suns	9-9	109.2	111.3	-2.1	0.4988	0.5310
Portland Trail Blazers	8-10	95.2	96.4	-1.2	0.4987	0.4770
Memphis Grizzlies	8-11	100.7	102.1	-1.4	0.4968	0.4436
Houston Rockets	6-12	103.9	105.9	-2.0	0.4963	0.3883
Toronto Raptors	7-11	100.7	102.3	-1.6	0.4960	0.3799
Charlotte Bobcats	6-11	100.9	102.8	-1.8	0.4960	0.3967
Milwaukee Bucks	6-12	91.3	93.6	-2.3	0.4948	0.3686
New York Knickerbockers	10-9	107.0	106.8	0.2	0.4938	0.4414
Philadelphia 76ers	5-13	97.3	99.7	-2.4	0.4937	0.2926
New Jersey Nets	6-13	94.7	98.4	-3.7	0.4907	0.3333
Golden State Warriors	8-11	101.4	106.5	-5.1	0.4859	0.4062
Los Angeles Clippers	4-15	97.3	104.1	-6.8	0.4858	0.3123
Cleveland Cavaliers	7-11	94.3	100.9	-6.6	0.4857	0.3950
Detroit Pistons	6-13	94.4	100.3	-5.9	0.4836	0.3255
Washington Wizards	5-12	98.2	106.1	-7.8	0.4817	0.2985
Minnesota Timberwolves	4-14	100.2	109.6	-9.4	0.4788	0.2590
Sacramento Kings	4-12	94.3	100.8	-6.5	0.4787	0.2311

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

Nov. 4 Rankings

These rankings reflect 66 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	4-1	100.6	84.0	16.6	0.5430	0.6894
Orlando Magic	2-1	103.3	88.3	15.0	0.5370	0.5866
Los Angeles Lakers	5-0	113.8	100.8	13.0	0.5312	0.8564
Denver Nuggets	2-2	103.3	96.3	7.0	0.5300	0.5337
New Orleans Hornets	4-0	100.5	93.8	6.8	0.5251	0.8039
Dallas Mavericks	3-1	98.0	90.3	7.8	0.5179	0.6224
Boston Celtics	4-1	98.8	92.8	6.0	0.5106	0.6523
Atlanta Hawks	5-0	103.2	94.6	8.6	0.5105	0.7662
San Antonio Spurs	3-1	105.3	101.5	3.8	0.5074	0.6721
Houston Rockets	0-4	107.8	114.5	-6.8	0.5073	0.3119
Golden State Warriors	3-1	109.8	108.8	1.0	0.5070	0.6776
Phoenix Suns	1-3	104.5	106.5	-2.0	0.5062	0.4272
Portland Trail Blazers	4-2	99.7	94.7	5.0	0.5038	0.5708
New York Knickerbockers	2-2	103.5	102.5	1.0	0.5010	0.4999
Philadelphia 76ers	1-4	98.0	98.2	-0.2	0.5003	0.3236
Utah Jazz	2-2	106.8	106.8	0.0	0.5001	0.4638
Memphis Grizzlies	2-3	103.6	107.4	-3.8	0.4991	0.5330
Chicago Bulls	2-2	104.5	103.8	0.8	0.4912	0.4617
Washington Wizards	1-2	98.0	108.7	-10.7	0.4893	0.4353
Toronto Raptors	1-3	102.5	103.8	-1.3	0.4892	0.3147
Sacramento Kings	3-2	107.0	109.2	-2.2	0.4855	0.5449
Milwaukee Bucks	1-4	90.4	94.8	-4.4	0.4854	0.3055
Los Angeles Clippers	1-4	91.4	99.0	-7.6	0.4827	0.3643
New Jersey Nets	2-2	92.0	96.0	-4.0	0.4821	0.4549
Indiana Pacers	2-2	96.8	102.5	-5.8	0.4813	0.4371
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-3	92.0	98.8	-6.8	0.4809	0.3797
Oklahoma City Thunder	3-2	101.8	106.4	-4.6	0.4789	0.5075
Charlotte Bobcats	1-3	90.0	96.5	-6.5	0.4743	0.3033
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-4	96.8	113.6	-16.8	0.4710	0.3085
Detroit Pistons	0-5	92.8	102.0	-9.2	0.4706	0.1918

(Click any header to re-sort the rankings.)

Prediction Results for Nov. 3

Apologies for the lack of updates. Catching up tonight.

Game	Colley	W-L	Stein	Woodrow	Winner
Mavericks at Nuggets	Nuggets	Even	Nuggets	Nuggets	Mavericks
Pistons at Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks	Hawks
Bobcats at Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets	Nets	Bobcats
Timberwolves at Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic	Magic
Pacers at 76ers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers	Pacers	76ers
Bucks at Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics	Celtics
Hornets at Rockets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets	Hornets
Raptors at Jazz	Jazz	Even	Jazz	Raptors	Jazz
Spurs at Suns	Spurs	Spurs	Spurs	Suns	Spurs
Grizzlies at Warriors	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Warriors	Warriors
Thunder at Clippers	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder	Thunder	Clippers
Lakers at Kings	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers	Lakers

Scores
Colley: 7-5
W-L: 6-4
Stein: 7-5
Woodrow: 6-6

Record
Stein: 18-7
Colley: 17-8
W-L: 15-7
Woodrow: 14-11
Home Team: 37-27

Nov. 3 Rankings

These rankings reflect 64 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

Team	W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Woodrow	Colley
Miami Heat	4-1	100.6	84.0	16.6	0.5429	0.6879
Orlando Magic	2-1	103.3	88.3	15.0	0.5370	0.5865
Los Angeles Lakers	5-0	113.8	100.8	13.0	0.5315	0.8580
Denver Nuggets	2-2	103.3	96.3	7.0	0.5297	0.5317
New Orleans Hornets	4-0	100.5	93.8	6.8	0.5255	0.8060
Dallas Mavericks	3-1	98.0	90.3	7.8	0.5179	0.6227
Portland Trail Blazers	4-1	98.4	92.2	6.2	0.5108	0.6567
Boston Celtics	4-1	98.8	92.8	6.0	0.5103	0.6415
Atlanta Hawks	5-0	103.2	94.6	8.6	0.5102	0.7655
San Antonio Spurs	3-1	105.3	101.5	3.8	0.5079	0.6749
Phoenix Suns	1-3	104.5	106.5	-2.0	0.5076	0.4398
Houston Rockets	0-4	107.8	114.5	-6.8	0.5074	0.3123
Golden State Warriors	3-1	109.8	108.8	1.0	0.5071	0.6782
Philadelphia 76ers	1-4	98.0	98.2	-0.2	0.5003	0.3235
New York Knickerbockers	1-2	98.0	99.3	-1.3	0.5000	0.4191
Memphis Grizzlies	2-3	103.6	107.4	-3.8	0.4992	0.5334
Utah Jazz	2-2	106.8	106.8	0.0	0.4983	0.4493
Chicago Bulls	2-1	102.0	98.3	3.7	0.4936	0.5551
Washington Wizards	1-2	98.0	108.7	-10.7	0.4892	0.4351
Toronto Raptors	1-3	102.5	103.8	-1.3	0.4883	0.2975
Milwaukee Bucks	1-4	90.4	94.8	-4.4	0.4868	0.3170
Sacramento Kings	3-2	107.0	109.2	-2.2	0.4852	0.5420
Los Angeles Clippers	1-4	91.4	99.0	-7.6	0.4827	0.3656
New Jersey Nets	2-2	92.0	96.0	-4.0	0.4818	0.4545
Indiana Pacers	2-2	96.8	102.5	-5.8	0.4815	0.4379
Cleveland Cavaliers	1-3	92.0	98.8	-6.8	0.4805	0.3744
Charlotte Bobcats	1-3	90.0	96.5	-6.5	0.4747	0.3053
Oklahoma City Thunder	2-2	100.5	106.5	-6.0	0.4717	0.4270
Minnesota Timberwolves	1-4	96.8	113.6	-16.8	0.4712	0.3096
Detroit Pistons	0-5	92.8	102.0	-9.2	0.4693	0.1919

(Inital rankings are sorted by the Colley-Woodrow rankings, but you can click a different heading to re-sort the table! The W-L column sorts by W-L %, rather than games ahead/behind, so a 4-2 team is equal to a 2-1 team.)

Prediction Contest: Welcome Colley-Woodrow!

Disclaimer:  the Colley Matrix does not accurately predict games.  I would argue, however, that it predicts games better than a simple Win-Loss comparison.

Having worked out the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method, I think we have a true prognosticator to challenge Marc Stein.  Because of the closer rankings (nothing beyond 0.4-0.5), I'm setting it's "equal" margin at 0.001.  We'll see how well it works out; here's the record beginning on Oct. 31:

Colley-Woodrow, Oct. 31:
Mavericks (0.5030) defeated Clippers (0.4829)
Heat (0.5201) defeated Nets (0.5129)
Jazz (0.4556) upset Thunder (0.5235)
Lakers (0.5055) upsetWarriors (0.5155)
Score: 2-2
Record: 2-2

Colley-Woodrow, Nov. 1:
Bulls (0.4521) upset Blazers (0.5314)
Kings (0.4853) upset Raptors (0.5317)
Spurs (0.5187) defeated Clippers (0.4792)
Score: 1-2
Record: 3-4

Colley-Woodrow, Nov. 2:
Hawks (0.5013) defeated Cavaliers (0.4916)
Wizards (0.4559) upset 76ers (0.4859)
Celtics (0.5125) defeated Pistons (0.4788)
Heat (0.5317) defeated Timberwolves (0.4900)
Blazers (0.5074) defeated Bucks (0.4938)
Lakers (0.5329) defeated Grizzlies (0.5056)
Score: 5-1
Record: 8-5


So, not that great of a start.  We will persist!

Current Rankings:
Stein: 11-2
Colley: 10-3
W-L: 9-3
Woodrow: 8-5

This is SCARY

Before I talk about how I got these rankings, let me post them first:

	Team	W-L	PF	PA	Diff	Rating
1	Miami Heat	4-1	100.6	84.0	16.6	0.5393
2	Los Angeles Lakers	4-0	114.3	101.0	13.3	0.5372
3	Denver Nuggets	2-1	104.0	94.3	9.7	0.5335
4	New Orleans Hornets	3-0	98.3	92.0	6.3	0.5244
5	Boston Celtics	3-1	97.3	90.5	6.8	0.5191
6	Portland Trail Blazers	4-1	98.4	92.2	6.2	0.5113
7	Houston Rockets	0-3	110.7	117.0	-6.3	0.5098
8	Phoenix Suns	1-2	102.7	104.7	-2.0	0.5098
9	New York Knickerbockers	1-2	98.0	99.3	-1.3	0.5088
10	Atlanta Hawks	4-0	105.5	97.0	8.5	0.5083
11	Dallas Mavericks	2-1	96.7	86.7	10.0	0.5083
12	Orlando Magic	1-1	91.0	89.5	1.5	0.5079
13	San Antonio Spurs	2-1	103.0	98.7	4.3	0.5061
14	Toronto Raptors	1-2	100.7	96.7	4.0	0.5057
15	Golden State Warriors	2-1	108.0	108.7	-0.7	0.5048
16	Memphis Grizzlies	2-2	102.3	105.5	-3.3	0.5016
17	Chicago Bulls	2-1	102.0	98.3	3.7	0.4981
18	Utah Jazz	1-2	100.7	106.3	-5.7	0.4935
19	Sacramento Kings	3-1	108.8	108.5	0.3	0.4907
20	Indiana Pacers	2-1	104.0	103.0	1.0	0.4900
21	Cleveland Cavaliers	1-3	92.0	98.8	-6.8	0.4877
22	New Jersey Nets	2-1	95.0	99.7	-4.7	0.4876
23	Philadelphia 76ers	0-4	97.3	104.0	-6.8	0.4845
24	Milwaukee Bucks	1-3	87.5	92.3	-4.8	0.4827
25	Oklahoma City Thunder	2-1	103.3	106.3	-3.0	0.4810
26	Minnesota Timberwolves	1-3	99.5	110.0	-10.5	0.4796
27	Washington Wizards	1-2	98.0	108.7	-10.7	0.4736
28	Detroit Pistons	0-4	94.8	104.0	-9.3	0.4729
29	Los Angeles Clippers	0-4	87.5	100.8	-13.3	0.4724
30	Charlotte Bobcats	0-3	91.7	101.0	-9.3	0.4695

Explanation:This ranking system is newly designed, at least as far as I know, by me, on Nov. 3, 2010. If someone else has implemented this system, I am currently unaware of it.

I'm calling it, egotistically, the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method. It applies the Colley Matrix method, but scores EACH POINT as a win/loss. So when Boston played Miami on opening night, instead of playing one game, they played 168 games [Boston won 88-80]. Boston won 88 of them, and Miami won 80.

The Colley-Woodrow Matrix method is optimized for a high-scoring system such as the NBA, in which points are generally proportional to ability. I suspect that in games like the NFL, the ability to score 6-8 points all at once would limit the effectiveness of the point-to-win ratio.

I would further argue that the Colley-Woodrow method is superior to the Colley method, at least for high-scoring systems.  It's been proven for awhile that point differential is a more accurate indicator of future success than the win-loss ratio. 

Results:
Enough of the details...did you see what I saw?  Houston, an 0-3 team, is ranked #7...wow.  They're even better than the 4-0 Hawks?  And they even have a -6.7 differential!  What in the world is going on?

If you look at the numbers, it's actually not that surprising.  The strength of the Colley method is in its ability to accurately determine strength-of-schedule.  Houston, then, has one of the toughest SOS so far--Lakers, Nuggets, and Warriors--with an average differential of +7.4.  The Hawks, by contrast, have played the Grizz, 76ers, Wizards, and Cavs...not the greatest bunch (with apologies to Wall and Love).  Their average differential is a measly -6.9.


Although I'm a Mavs FFL, I definitely admire the Rockets and especially Daryl Morey (Dork Elvis).  I was surprised to see them down 0-3.  This ranking method, however, tells a different story, one where they are the equals (or betters) of a 4-0 team.