Wednesday, November 3, 2010

This is SCARY

Before I talk about how I got these rankings, let me post them first:

TeamW-LPFPADiffRating
1Miami Heat4-1100.684.016.60.5393
2Los Angeles Lakers4-0114.3101.013.30.5372
3Denver Nuggets2-1104.094.39.70.5335
4New Orleans Hornets3-098.392.06.30.5244
5Boston Celtics3-197.390.56.80.5191
6Portland Trail Blazers4-198.492.26.20.5113
7Houston Rockets0-3110.7117.0-6.30.5098
8Phoenix Suns1-2102.7104.7-2.00.5098
9New York Knickerbockers1-298.099.3-1.30.5088
10Atlanta Hawks4-0105.597.08.50.5083
11Dallas Mavericks2-196.786.710.00.5083
12Orlando Magic1-191.089.51.50.5079
13San Antonio Spurs2-1103.098.74.30.5061
14Toronto Raptors1-2100.796.74.00.5057
15Golden State Warriors2-1108.0108.7-0.70.5048
16Memphis Grizzlies2-2102.3105.5-3.30.5016
17Chicago Bulls2-1102.098.33.70.4981
18Utah Jazz1-2100.7106.3-5.70.4935
19Sacramento Kings3-1108.8108.50.30.4907
20Indiana Pacers2-1104.0103.01.00.4900
21Cleveland Cavaliers1-392.098.8-6.80.4877
22New Jersey Nets2-195.099.7-4.70.4876
23Philadelphia 76ers0-497.3104.0-6.80.4845
24Milwaukee Bucks1-387.592.3-4.80.4827
25Oklahoma City Thunder2-1103.3106.3-3.00.4810
26Minnesota Timberwolves1-399.5110.0-10.50.4796
27Washington Wizards1-298.0108.7-10.70.4736
28Detroit Pistons0-494.8104.0-9.30.4729
29Los Angeles Clippers0-487.5100.8-13.30.4724
30Charlotte Bobcats0-391.7101.0-9.30.4695

Explanation:This ranking system is newly designed, at least as far as I know, by me, on Nov. 3, 2010. If someone else has implemented this system, I am currently unaware of it.

I'm calling it, egotistically, the Colley-Woodrow Matrix method. It applies the Colley Matrix method, but scores EACH POINT as a win/loss. So when Boston played Miami on opening night, instead of playing one game, they played 168 games [Boston won 88-80]. Boston won 88 of them, and Miami won 80.

The Colley-Woodrow Matrix method is optimized for a high-scoring system such as the NBA, in which points are generally proportional to ability. I suspect that in games like the NFL, the ability to score 6-8 points all at once would limit the effectiveness of the point-to-win ratio.

I would further argue that the Colley-Woodrow method is superior to the Colley method, at least for high-scoring systems.  It's been proven for awhile that point differential is a more accurate indicator of future success than the win-loss ratio. 

Results:
Enough of the details...did you see what I saw?  Houston, an 0-3 team, is ranked #7...wow.  They're even better than the 4-0 Hawks?  And they even have a -6.7 differential!  What in the world is going on?

If you look at the numbers, it's actually not that surprising.  The strength of the Colley method is in its ability to accurately determine strength-of-schedule.  Houston, then, has one of the toughest SOS so far--Lakers, Nuggets, and Warriors--with an average differential of +7.4.  The Hawks, by contrast, have played the Grizz, 76ers, Wizards, and Cavs...not the greatest bunch (with apologies to Wall and Love).  Their average differential is a measly -6.9.


Although I'm a Mavs FFL, I definitely admire the Rockets and especially Daryl Morey (Dork Elvis).  I was surprised to see them down 0-3.  This ranking method, however, tells a different story, one where they are the equals (or betters) of a 4-0 team.

No comments:

Post a Comment