Monday, November 1, 2010

Oct. 31 Rankings

These rankings reflect 43 of 1230 games in the NBA regular season:

TeamW-LColley
New Orleans Hornets3-00.8137
Los Angeles Lakers3-00.7675
Atlanta Hawks3-00.7461
Portland Trail Blazers3-00.7435
Miami Heat3-10.6637
Memphis Grizzlies2-10.6370
Boston Celtics2-10.6132
Denver Nuggets2-10.6042
New Jersey Nets2-10.5921
Sacramento Kings2-10.5900
San Antonio Spurs1-10.5808
Golden State Warriors2-10.5639
Dallas Mavericks2-10.5167
Oklahoma City Thunder2-10.5113
Indiana Pacers2-10.5093
Orlando Magic1-10.4934
Phoenix Suns1-20.4863
Toronto Raptors1-10.4755
New York Knicks1-20.4664
Cleveland Cavaliers1-20.4357
Chicago Bulls1-10.4295
Minnesota Timberwolves1-20.4221
Utah Jazz1-20.4204
Milwaukee Bucks1-20.3835
Washington Wizards 0-20.3099
Houston Rockets0-30.2871
Philadelphia 76ers0-30.2838
Los Angeles Clippers0-30.2648
Detroit Pistons0-30.2066
Charlotte Bobcats0-30.1819

Though not a purely predictive system, I would argue that the Colley rankings are better at prediction than the win-loss record. Let's test that theory:

Mavericks (1-1, 0.4466) defeated Clippers (0-2, 0.3522)
Heat (2-1, 0.5638) upset Nets (2-0, 0.7249)
Jazz (0-2, 0.2508) upset Thunder (2-0, 0.6942)
Lakers (2-0, 0.6792) defeated Warriors (2-0, 0.6583)

Although we have two upsets, it's an upset based on both W-L record and Colley ranking. The Lakers/Warriors game, however, is a meeting of "equals"! When a 2-0 team meets another 2-0 team, we have no clue who will win...but the Colley rankings predicted a better performance from the Lakers, and they delivered!

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